by Aisthesis » Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:18 pm
I'm not completely sure how I play this one, although I'll definitely lose my stack.
I would expect a fairly big hand from this guy in this situation. He limps to avoid winning just the blinds if you fold, then makes a raise that definitely wants a caller. I think I'd be looking for QQ-AA, despite his very loose PF statistics (I think he'd make a little bigger raise on AK, but obviously haven't seen this guy play).
If that read is accurate (?), then I wonder whether a call him down strategy isn't best. He's behind 9 times (6 QQ and 3 KK) and ahead once where you need your flush. In fact, if he has QQ, he's drawing completely dead on the turn (and has only 1 out with KK).
If I was able to figure this out on the spot, I think I'd probably call him down and push almost any river (and obviously not be happy with the result)--unless he's going to call a raise earlier with QQ or KK and the A showing. I guess I MIGHT persuade myself to flat call a river bet, but I doubt it. He's in awfully deep by that time to lay down KK or QQ by that time, and the AA I would simply have to view as the exception.
Anyhow, I guess that's one of your problematic AK hands, but I really don't have any real problems with the way you played it.
Also, if his range is really QQ-AA on the limp-re-raise, he has AA/KK half the time and QQ half the time. I guess one could consider laying it down PF, but I really hate to against a LAG--particularly with the suited bonus, which puts you right at 50-50 against QQ.