iceman5's Limit experiment

[iceman5]

I just got back from vacation in Fort Lauderdale. Ive decided to try a little expermient by playing some limit for a change. I will play $2/$4 limit (3 tables) for the next week and see how I do. I'll report my results for anyone interested. I stopped playing limit something like 2 years ago. Ive only played a couple 100 hands of $1/$2 since I made the switch to NL but decided the change of scenery would be fun. I may continue the experiment longer than a week if my results are promising. ( I know I need much more than a week to get an accurate gauge on my win rate, but with 3 tables, I should get a fair number of hands in this week). I fully admit, that I have a lot to learn when it comes to playing limit. Ive never played higher than $2/$4 limit.

Here are the results from my first session

383 hands played
130 mins played
+$61.50
+7.1 BB / hr
+2.4 BB / hr per table
Total hourly rate = $28.50 / hr

Only 13.5% VIP so far. I play tight as a rule, but I think the cards were pretty bad tonight. We'll see what my percentages are after a couple 1000 hands. I saw some pretty bad play, but got sucked out on a few times as expected. I was up about $100 after the first hour then was down $4 at the low point.

[striker2550]

Go Ice !

[Felonius_Monk]

[iceman5]

Day 2 of my Limit experiment

703 hands played
3.3 hours played
+$182.75
+13.8 BB / hr
+4.6 BB / hr per table
Hourly rate = $55.38


Totals after 2 days

1086 hands played
5.45 hours played
+$244.25
+11.2 BB / Hr
+3.73 BB / Hr per table
Total win rate = $44.82 / Hr

Thats pretty damned good for a NL player, if I do say so myself! We'll see if it continues.
So far Im at 16.2 VIP%
65.3% win at showdown
4.7% preflop raise

[Ben]

I hope you don't mind if I comment on these stats:

So far Im at 16.2 VIP% - very good!
65.3% win at showdown - will probably drop to mid or upper 50's long-term
4.7% preflop raise - should be about double, 8 - 10%

Very impressive win rate so far! Continued good luck on your experiment, Ice!

Ben

[iceman5]

How can I be raising 8-10% when Im only playing 16% of my hands. What about all the Axs, JTs and low pairs in LP type hands. Those account for a lot of my hands. I cant raise with all of those.

I posted those stats for the sole purpose of people commenting on them, so no I dont mind.

[Ben]

I know it's probably rare, but if you are first in while in MP or LP, then you should almost always be open raising. In those positions, if you are first in, almost any hand you are willing to play should be raised.

Obviously, raising hands would include: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, lower pocket pairs sometimes depending on situation. AK, AQ, AJs, and sometimes ATs, KQs, and KJs depending on the situation.

It took me a long time to get my pre-flop raise % where it should be. What it took me a while to realize is that so many of the low-limit players play such poor hands that I should be raising a lot more because I usually have the advantage playing better hands.

Here is a great example. Say you are in the BB with ATs and have 4 or more limpers in front of you. This is a definite raise in the BB.

Ben

[iceman5]

Why?

Nobody will fold. If you hit top pair with either your ace or ten, any one who hits any piece of the flop will have correct odds to chase their 5 outer because you built the pot preflop. If you miss the flop (which you'll do more often than not) what do you do?

[MozMan]

To add to what Ben has said about raising, it's also good to add some raises in the cutoff with bigger cards, for the purpose of buying the button for the rest of the hand. In other words, if you think you can get the button to fold pre-flop, then raise it. That way, you regain absolute positional advantage, and sometimes even set up a flop steal (depending on how loose and passive the table is).

[Ben]

[iceman5]

[piersmajestyk]

Forgive me if some of my insights are a little hazy now as the cervezas have been flowing on top of more than one glass of bourbon. Ben raises some good points about your preflop raising percentage. It should be somewhere near 8% give or take 1% point. As he said you should be raising nearly every hand when you are first in the pot from EP or MP because there should be very few hands you are playing from here and they all should be premium. Your win % will definately drop to around the mid 50% range, perhaps after your bad run yesterday you will unfortunately attest to that.

I am not going to argue about the raise with A10s from the BB. I will just say that the only two hands I raise with from the blinds in normal circumstances are AA and KK. Some fool pounding on my blinds every round and I will three bet without looking at my cards from the SB or BB. I don't have the stats to back me up one way or the other but in my opinion raising out of the BB with A10s into 5 people is just not going to show a profit and if it does it will miniscule. I clearly understand about raising in situations where you are gaining equity for that raise as Ben suggest but from the blinds into 5 others is not the place for that raise in my opinion because I don't believe that but a couple of hands have a +EV in that situation. For one thing now there are 12 bets in the pot. On the flop every person with anything is getting the correct odds to draw to beat you (bottom pair, gut shots, etc.) even if you hit your hand. If you just check the BB then bet when you hit your A or top pair 10 then they are not correct to chase in these situations and having your opponents call in these situations is +EV for you now and not for them. Sure your pots are going to be bigger when you win but I sincerely don't believe they are giong to outway your extra losses and if they do it is going to be a VERY small +EV. And if it is positive then I guess go ahead and fire away if you don't mind a greater variance factor in your game, I just prefer to play a lower variance game by eliminating these types of play from the gameplan although I might be giving up a slight overall edge.

Again when playing B&M I may very well make this play and many others when faced with a stable lineup for several hours.

[Ben]

I recommend raising with more hands from the BB. If you have all limpers, then you should assume that their hands are not very strong. Hands like AK, AQ, AKs, AQs, AJs, KQs are very strong hands against limpers. You want to put more money in the pot while you are ahead. You are usually ahead pre-flop with those hands if everyone has limped in front of you. Raise and make the limpers pay for playing their poor quality hands.

Think about the typical hands that you see people limping in with... hands like Ax, KT, K9, QT, TJ, and any two suited. Your advantage pre-flop against these types of hands is significant. Raise and make them pay to play their weak hands. In fact, the more people playing those hands against your premium hands, the better. You will win fewer pots, but your total earn will be much higher.

I agree totally that your variance will also be higher, which is not desirable. However, if you are playing with a sufficient bankroll, then you should be willing to accept the higher variance since it will increase your overall long-term earnings.

Great discussion!!

Ben

[piersmajestyk]

Ben,

I am not going to doubt you that perhaps these raising situations may have a +EV although if there is someone with the ability to plug in these various raising hands you suggest into a program along with 5 probable type hands you are up against and see the overall result I would be very interested in it (I would assume Turbo Texas Holdem can do this but I don't have the program). You are no doubt correct in saying that you are likely a significant favorite over each individual hand that the limpers may have but you are a big dog to them collectively and whether you can outrun that disadvantage by doubling the pot preflop with your bad position is something that I just can't make myself confortable with although I may very well be wrong and I can accept that but I certainly would like to know how much in terms of earnings I am foregoing here and if it is anywhere near a significant number I have no problems adapting my game around that.

Yes a very good discussion. Hope you or someone else out there can help me out with the numbers.

[Ben]