by Calaziar » Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:14 pm
I wish you had given us some of your impressions of Villiain here. With the info you provide if I am being 'safe' I figure him for a tight raiser and give him credit for AA-QQ AKs and little else. This probably marks him as the biggest rock on the 'net' (at 5/10) but if I'm satisfied with that since I'm losing or tied by all his hands except AKs meaning he's hit one of only ten combinations a 133:1 shot. If I drop KK from the equation he's hit a 148:1 shot. If I'm comfortable with that read I either fold now or call, see the turn and then fold to any bet barring a K falling, of course.
If I'm not satisfied with that read I prefer to try to cap flop. If Villain is semibluffing with say JJ I don't mind winning now and charging as much as possible. That's what most of us would do with AA here, I think. Remember our implied odds get worse with every street with these big pairs. The downside of them is they are high variance if you push them for all they are worth.
Of course he could be a LAG as well and then we can worry about 66, 22, 62, Q2, and Q6, probably suited for the non-pairs but not necessarily. I've seen stranger stuff raised and reraised both online and B&M at 5/10 and 8/16 games. Without a read from you on this 'guy' its tough to do anything other than speculate. At 2/4 and lower I tend to push AA and KK. I'm ahead with them but they are high variance when played this way. I lost with the cowboys to AA just yesterday for example. I guess I've seen enough people try to batter and chase with lesser hands when I have these I've become anesthetized to those times when my opponents actually do have them beaten. Since that happens rarely HU from the flop what are you comfortable gambling with? All these hands become respectable pots when capped PF so why not risk a bit more? If you just call the 3bet the pot is already 6.5BB before the turn betting even starts. I think you probably still have the best hand and I wouldn't worry too much about a monster under the bed until I've seen another card or two.
My luck is so bad that if I bought a cemetery, people
would stop dying.
~Ed Furgol