And I even saw it coming

by **Rhound50** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:44 am

I love playing poker but sometimes this game kills me. I have been playing the 2/4 NL at a casino near my house in Oceanside. I had been on a really good run going into today. Going into today, I had 5 winning sessions in a row and made a nice chunk of money. I feel like I am playin very well. So when I left the house today to play, I had this bad feeling that it wasnt going to be my day. I actaully considered not playing but decided to anyways. And low and behold I called it. I flopped trip 10's vs a calling station with A/10 put him all in on the turn he calls river is an 8 seems like a useless card except he called my all in with 88 with 2 over cards on the board and made a boat. About an gour later, I raised to $25 from UTG with AK got 3 calls, flopped top two with two clubs on the flop. I check knowing the agressive player to my right would bet. He does I raise to put him all in for his last $75 he calls with a flush draw and bottom pair and rivers trip 4's he cold called $25 with 3/4 suited. Than the final hand, I call from the button with KQ, flop the straight. I lead out $20 it gets raised by the SB would is playing QJ suited, I put him all in and he turns his flush. Nice way to dump $300 in 3 hours. Ahhhhhhhhh, the best part is I knew it was coming, after a nice winning streak I always seem to have a couple of these days. My question is do other people have the same issues, and what do you do about it?

by **iceman5** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 1:10 am

Yes it happens to me and I assume everyone also. What do I do about it? I scream at my computer and keep playing.

by **Rhound50** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 1:43 am

I guess my real question was, should I have stayed home. Leaving the house thinking i'm going to lose is not a good way to start a poker game. I guess I did play my hands right itsjust frustating. Everytime I have had a good run, I have one ot two sitting where I can't win. Hopefully I got it out of my system and I can go back to winning again. The cursing thing works well at home but at a casino maybe not such a good idea.

by **Mad Genius** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 2:19 am

It sounds like the last two hands weren't THAT bad beats in all honesty. Your opponent's preflop call with 3-4 is not a great call, but when he flops a pair and a flush draw, he's close to even money against your top two. And in the last hand, your opponent had a flush draw and I'm assuming a straight draw as well, which would perhaps have tied your hand. Regardless, the flush draw will hit 35% of the time. Obviously you will make money in the long run but after having played for a long time these beats don't bother me as much. It's just a situation where two people both make reasonable plays and one just gets unlucky. It's those morons like the one in the first hand that really get me ticked off...

by **Rhound50** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 2:36 am

MadGenius, yeah I understand the odds with last two hands. The first guy got himself pot commited by calling my raise preflop and then he was getting odds to make the call when I put him all in. The second guy thinks he has more outs than he does. Really his just on a flush draw. Losing these pots is nothing I have had much worse outdraws. The first one did suck, but it isnt the first of last time I'm gonna beat with a two outter on the river. What frustrates me was that I saw it coming. Also that the fish that hit his two outter on the river left right after sucking me out. He is welcome at my table anytime he wants, people like that are very good for my bank role.

by **Braniff** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 4:13 am

I expect this to happen to me when I play, that's what I do about it. I know that the last bad beat I took will not be the last one I ever take. It's a volume thing. If you play well, or at least make less mistakes than your opponets, time will take care of the rest. David Sklansky say he expects to lose a third of the time - if he plays 300 days a year, he goes home a loser 100 times. Sometimes a sucker makes a big killing at the craps table, the casino expects this and plays for volume.
Good luck, Mike

by **TheUnknownPlayer** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 5:02 am

... my honey works at that casino in Oceanside

and Mike, just an adendum to your comment - Sklansky expects to go home a loser 1/3 of the time in limit - I'm sure you knew that but for the people who might read this who didn't...

by **Kurab** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 8:32 am

First, let me say this - much easir here to say then do - but on that note....

You shoud of turned arround and gone home.....If you think your not ready to play or gonna have a bad game - go with the instinct and get away.

The hands you lost - not much you can do - I think you played them well....

Like I said though MUCH easier to say then actually do....I find if I think I am gonna have a bad day - and I play anyway - and always have a bad day...

by **iceman5** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 8:50 am

I expect to win every time I sit down because I know Im better than the majority of players. However, there is still a certain amount of luck which dictates that even if I play my "A" game, Im going to lose sometimes.

Its usually 2 steps forward and 1 step back. Over and over and over again.

But the fish are taking 1 step forward and 3 steps back.

by **Braniff** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 2:04 pm

Hey UnknownPlayer, that's a good question that I don't know the answer to. If Skalansky expects to go home a loser a third of the time in limit, what percent of the time does he expect to go home a loser in NL?
Thanks, Mike

by **TheUnknownPlayer** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 3:41 pm

by **Rhound50** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 3:42 pm

by **Nortonesque** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 4:12 pm

by **Rhound50** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 4:34 pm

by **Nortonesque** » Mon Dec 06, 2004 4:42 pm

And I even saw it coming

And I even saw it coming

Quit when your ahead...

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