Theory question

[iceman5]

What is the correct turn play in these hands. Think about it before answering, then give your reasons for your answer.

Both hands are $5/$10 NL 6 max. You have no reads.

#1) MP ($1000) raises to $40. You cover and call on the button with [Qs]. The BB also calls.

Pot $125. Flop [Kh][4c]. BB checks, MP bets $40. He could have AA / KK / AK or more likely has nothing, so you decide to call. BB folds.

Pot $205. Turn . He bets $90. Your play? And why?

#2) You open to $35 on the button with [Kc]. SB ($380) calls.

Pot $80. Flop [4h][3c]. He leads $30. You raise to $100 and he calls.

Pot $230. Turn . He bets $45 and has $200 left. You do what?

[k3nt]

Why are these "theory" rather than standard hand analysis questions? Are you implying that most of the time we don't "think about it before answering"?

Hand #1 I call because (a) I can't fold and (b) a raise only folds hands that I'm beating. Right now I think I'm ahead 60% of the time, largely because both of his bets are so weak. However, I'm a little worried at how much bigger his turn bet is compared to his flop bet.

I suppose a minimum raise here might help get to a showdown cheaper. If he comes over the top then he has my hand beat and I fold.

Hand #2 his turn bet looks very weak. I'm putting him on 56 or a middle pair and raising again. If he reraises my raise, especially a minreraise, then I am thinking weak then strong = monster = flopped set. If he calls my turn raise I'm probably checking behind on any river.

[iceman5]

They are theory questions because although they are real hands, these are situations that come up over and over and the answer is more than "Im ahead, I raise!"

And, yes, I think we all answer without thinking seriously about the question alot of times.

[Zmej]

1) Call turn. Value bet or value raise the river.
Reason: There is almost no draw, so you don't need to protect your hand. Your hand can't stand much heat too, so you want to play a middle sized pot. If he has something he can fire again or call your value bet, so you will control the pot size.

2)Raise to 120.
Reason: Against a shortey TPTK is good so you want his stack, the simplest way to accomplish this is to put it in by parts, so he will put half of the remaining stack on turn and the rest on the river.

[WayToGo]

Hand 1 looks to me like a clear call.
His lead looks weak and could be a weak second barrell from 88/TT or maybe a hand like AJo hoping to not get raised. I call.

Hand 2.:
You just turned your bluff into some showdown value so play accordingly.. call.


EDIT: didn't pay attention to stack sizes hand 2, i think i raise and let him stick it in with TT or do so on the river.

[mapleleaf]

[T-Rod]

[MVPSPORTS]

[Stoneburg]

#1
Call because no hand you beat can call a raise. If you're behind you lose less by calling, if you're ahead you give him a chance to bluff off some more. He shouldn't have more than 5 outs so no big danger in giving him a free card.

#2
That looks like a blocking bet which would be an argument for raising, but without a read (ie: it's just a bet) once again I think calling is OK for pretty much the same reasons as the previous hand.

[black_knight6]

1: Call the turn and raise/bet the river, or check behind if you think you're behind (though I tend to think you're ahead).

Reason: You're either WA/WB here, but I think WA. If WA, then you don't want to fold out hands that will fire another round on the river and/or call a bet/raise. So, you get more value out of hands you beat. If you're WB, then I think you get more info by the river whether you should raise or just call a bet; if he checks, you have to bet, but a CR from him would be awesome (you'd have to fold without the read).


2: Raise all in.

Reason: Normally I'd call if he were a full stack. But, he's short and you have to push. Smells like he's on a draw and not holding 2pr+.

[black_knight6]

Are people forgetting that villian in hand 2 only has 200 left after his 45 into 230 pot?!

[iceman5]

OK, so I call in both hands and here comes the river

#1) The board was [Kh][4c][6s] and the river is the . He bets $225 into the $385 pot. So does he have AJ and I got outdrawn? Did he have JJ? What about KJ or QT? Does he have nothing?

So the basic question is this.....if I was ahead of AJ, KJ, JJ or QT was calling (and not raising) correct since he only had 2 -5 outs? Can I fold now? I dont think so. So shouldve I have raised to make him pay to try to outdraw me? He already put the $90 in so if I just call, Im letting him draw for free (if hes drawing and is behind).

Its going to cost me $90 (turn bet) + $225 for a total of $315 to see if I have the winner. Should I have just raised to $300 or so and then folded to a reraise (or checked behind on the river? If I raise to $300-$315, HE has to pay the extra amount when hes behind and he gets nothing extra when he hits because Im not putting in another cent on the river. It costs me the same amount to see the river, but I win more when Im ahead and lose the same when Im behind OR get outdrawn. Thoughts?


#2) I call the turn bet. The board showed [4h][3c][Ks] and the river is the . He bets $100. He has only another $100 so I put him in. If he has me beat, then so be it, but Im not folding this hand no matter what because hes too short.

If I raise the turn all in, he probably folds everything I beat and calls with a set. But since Im not folding this hand no matter what hits the river, I theorize that its correct to just call the turn in this hand but raise the turn in the other since we still have alot of money behind.

So in summary, my point is that I think its correct to raise the turn when I think Im ahead but the money is still deep and I can lose alot more money if I get outdrawn, but its correct to just call when the money is shorter and the outdraw doesnt cost me much since I will not fold regardless of what falls on the river.

Im not 100% sure Im correct here, so please tell me why Im wrong if you think so.

[black_knight6]

1: River is the single worst card you could've seen (since no FDs out there). I can actually fold this. You only beat AT and other As other than A4/A6. I think you still want to call the turn instead of raising than dumping to a push based on your logic for calling the turn and facing the river bet. I think you get more EV my way than the flop raise - the river bet will be a bluff much more often to get this extra EV. The problem with THIS hand is that the river was just a REALLY bad card for you...if it were a blank this would be an easy call, right? I suspect so, so don't let a CRAP river change your analysis of how you played it.

2: Who cares? He's short and you have TPTK, I stand by my analysis. It's really a coinflip between raising the flop or waiting till the river to get it in. Either way I think you should get all in.

[shobute]

Hand 1, I will mix between calling down and raising flop or turn for value, depending on some kind of randomness and also influenced by the player.
Weaker hands not calling a raise in this spot is generally mistaken.
Weaker aces will call you most of the time.

Hand 2, I would shove.
Stacks and pot won't let you do anything else with what's now a pretty strong hand on this board.
Also it sends a message that a flop raise means business because your aggression will continue on the turn.

[shobute]

I hadn't seen you post the rivers, so I'll add this:

Hand 1, I would fold without a read.
Most players won't fire into you 3 streets with one pair on this kind of board.

I think I disagree with your analysis of a turn raise though.
Firstly, I think you will quite often see a river check and you can showdown for free if you want (or bet for value), so it's not really costing you $315 to get to showdown.
Sure, sometimes he will bet again, and then you'll have to decide if you're good often enough to call.
Secondly, I think a raise on the turn here should be primarily for value.
In this particular spot it's fine to raise, because it will be very hard for him to bluff you off since you have position.
And I do think he will call with weaker hands.

Hand 2, this isn't especially important. But in theory by just calling his small turn bet this is potentially a slightly profitable situation for him if he has a one-pair hand that is drawing against your hand.