TPWK Out of Position(200NL 6max)

[T-Rod]

Full Tilt 200NL 6max.

CO limps, SB folds, and I see the flop with 8[h] 6[d].

Flop ($4.5) 8[s] 4[c] 2[c].

What's my play here?

The problem is if I bet to say charge the FD, well there are a zillion cards that can hit the turn that force me to check and probably check/fold, or is it worth it to charge.

[NorthView]

[ua1176]

[pnutbutr]

Probably have to check fold this flop. Any bet will not get credit from 2 overs and the FD will likely call. Very few turns can encourage to you bet or call a bet so you've got little hope here I think.

[T-Rod]

A few additional thoughts:

Chance of an overcard or a flush hitting the turn = 61.7%
(24 overcards, 5 additional flush cards not an overcard, so 29/47=61%)

So by checking, I'm basically falling behind in the hand. Can I really call any future bet? I doubt it.

By betting, I charge the FD, but I probably cannot bet the turn also since 60% of the time a scare card will hit, and the other 40% of the time I'll be wondering about my kicker. So even if he's on the FD, I'll bet 4 on the flop, check the turn giving him a freebie (regardless if the FD hit or not). So I basically give him 2.1:1 pot odds for both the flop and turn when a flush is 1.9:1 to hit on flop and turn. So I'm not really gaining too much there, and it assumes I never pay him off.

What hands pay me off that I beat? Not much. I guess hands like JT or AJ that are played by calling stations. Yuck.

SUMMARY: Most of the time the turn will scare me, I can't really charge a FD hard and make some money there, and very few cards are going to pay me off.

I'm leaning towards outright check/fold. Thoughts?

[DoctorHandles]

Bet and re-evaluate the turn if he calls.

You'll take it over half the time.

[Jarren]

check raise?

[Danhdan]

I usually check the flop and evaluate my opponent. If he bets here, I don't mind giving him the pot. If he checks, I'm betting the turn if it's a decent card, say it pairs the board or gives me a draw along with my pair. If the turn is a JQKA, I'm probably not betting the turn. If my opponent is WT, I'm betting the flop every time because it usually missed him.

I think the whole decision depends on how you see the CO. Claiming small pots is important, but doing it OOP is hard, and against the wrong opponents it is reckless.

If I get to see a free turn in these situations, I'm usually going to see a river because I bet the turn and I feel I have the best hand at that point. Usually, I wil check the river and call a reasonable bet because I am trying to induce the bluff as I would against those I believe are on the draw, as well as control the pot size. Usually, in these situations, I've found that their standards go down as far as yours when they call in these spots.