PLO 100 hand....

[Felonius_Monk]

Obviously I don't like to be TOO results orientated, but what's everyone's take on this hand? I don't think I dislike the way I played it, but there's a line of argument that I butchered this somewhat. When I intend to CALL a bet, I am much more inclined to bet out in a lot of situations where my opponent has shown no strength.

PLO 100 I have £90-odd (can't rebuy at Crypto until you hit 80).

I am dealt 6778 with the 8 suited up in spades. One EP call, I call in MP, the button limps in, SB completes and the BB times out so it folds him.

Flop comes Q56 rainbow. I have an open ender, first two players check. Looks like a good spot for a steal semi-bluff so I bet pot. Button calls down, other players fold.

Turn throws out a Ts, which gives me the flush draw in spades to go with my pair of 7s and open-ender. What's your thinking at this point?

I felt button was weak, hadn't done much so far and this T completes no draws. I now had a lot of potential outs and there's $15 or so to play for, so I bet out the size of the pot. Button raises me just under the size of the pot, which puts him all-in. Pot is about $85 and it's somewhere in the 40-45 region to me. I call.

This is a fairly aggressive line I took with this hand, and it works for me fairly often. However, the usual Saturday afternoon crowd was a little bit loose and so perhaps I didn't quite have the fold equity I thought on this hand, maybe shoulda check-called the turn but I'm not sure. A lot of players will call a bet when it's small on the flop then wilt under pressure on the turn. I COULD even have been ahead of him with my pair of 7s, if he had a similar hand to me, and it figures that I have a lot of outs here if he calls or raises all-in, it's kinda hard to imagine him having my potential backdoor flush bettered and although a 9 puts out a higher straight than mine there's a decent chance it'd be good, a 7 might be good if he has 2 pair or something, and a 4 obviously gives me the nuts.

Anyhow, after I made the call he showed a set of queens and he'd also turned a higher flush draw, leaving me with 6 outs which missed. Absolute worst-case scenario stuff (I win only 15% of the time on the river) of course, but in retrospect, probably the BEST case scenario, other than him folding, is that he moves all in with a bare top 2 pair and perhaps a gutshot straight.... Against that I only win 42.5% of the time, so perhaps I was incorrect to make that turn call, which at the time appeared a no-brainer. Against a bare set I am 35% on the hand so call is correct. There are a number of possible holdings that have me below 30% on the hand, though; given the last bet, I figure I need to win a tiny shade over 30% to make it +ve EV to call. All in all, it's kinda marginal, as is every decision in this hand. I guess this time it just didn't work out for me, and everything I did was wrong, sometimes it happens in poker!

Monk
xxxxx

[briachek]

In comparison to most solid PLO players and especially you, I'm weak tight I guess. I probably check the flop looking to complete cheap but I don't mind the semi bluff at all. However, once the button calls, unless he's terrible, I put him on something better than two pair on that ragged board.

Being out of position on the turn, I probably check and fold to a pot bet as my initial read was that he was on something at least as strong as me or a set. IF my flush draw is good, you have 9 or 7 outs for that and 6 more outs for your straight (assuming you are splitting or he doesn't have a gutshot), which would make a pot call marginal. If he will just call the flop with top set like he did, there may be a chance he won't bet the full pot on the turn so you could get to see the river cheaper.

[Hofstra]

[forssell]

[Felonius_Monk]

Yeah, I agree with that. I didn't rate this opponent too highly but I think he played this one pretty reasonably.