i flop small flush + overbet CRAI ($100NL 6-max)

[ua1176]

$100NL 6-max @ Tribeca

1 EP limper. i limp along with [4h]. CO raises to $4. he's relatively tight and doesn't raise much....so i put him on TT+ or an Ace w/ a broadway kicker. limper calls, i call. they both have $100 and i cover.

flop: [Qh][Jh]
pot: $13

limper checks, i check, CO bets $10. limper folds and i push.

thoughts?

jon

[Rhound50]

I like this a lot, it really looks like a draw with , you are going to get called by a lot of hands you are ahead of here.

[Triple B]

[adamh]

thats how you put the tough decision on them, nice hand

[T-Rod]

I think that's a perfect play at Tribeca.

You'll get A[h] to call.

You'll get schmoes with KJ to call.

[ua1176]

villain insta-called with [Td] and was drawing very dead.

jon

[T-Rod]

[WayToGo]

[Calaziar]

[WayToGo]

[Calaziar]

I appreciate your point. I’m not sure it’s as cut and dried as you make it seem. The first problem I have is when you say “1% of the time someone holding two flush cards will flop a flush. I'll take my chances.” Isn’t that like saying “ the chances he has AA are only 0.45% “ when you have KK in MP, raise 4x BB(no limpers) and he has reraised you pre-flop. If you consistently go AI based on his only having 1 chance in 220 of having the hand that beats you I think you will not do as well as that particular stat seems to indicate because that number becomes useless once the event it predicts has already happened. The chances of your flopping Broadway or another straight with your AT are 332:1 yet I would be foolish to disregard it based on the betting and the board, especially if we make the board J a spade, for example.

Even if the above doesn’t change your point of view what hands are going to go over the top for 7x the pot? I don’t think you will see much else besides a lesser made flush or Ahx. I’d favor the made flush because he’s hoping to stop a redraw or at least make them pay too much. I’m not worried about the nut flush going all in here as he’s freerolling to everything except Thx and getting beaten there is a 1 outer.

I suppose you might see a pure bluff like AA-KK with no redraw try it but it would surprise me to have it be statistically significant especially against 2 other villains one of whom has already raised. I’m going to randomly say that 1/3 of the time you call you are drawing dead and the rest of the time you are up against the Ahx hands. I ran a simulation with AhKc vs. your hand in Poker Stove. Your normal equity against a flush draw would be 65% but since a nut flush draw will allow straights (as well as 4K and two fullhouses) the equities changed to 58% for your hand to 42% for the drawing hand. Although I don’t think you will see bluffs here this often I’m just granting your hand the 65% equity it would have against a run of the mill straight draw and hope the times an A or Th make a straight or boat compensate for the times you win against a hand drawing dead aginst yours.

The pot is $23 when the Hero goes AI. He says he covers both who started with $100 so from the betting you would be calling $86 to win $109 or 1.27:1. If you wind up drawing dead 1/3 of the times you call the bet and win $109 65% of the rest of the time you are in a minus EV situation. If you think you might have a set calling AI your equity decreases slightly on all those hands where that happens by around 2%.

The math seems pretty clear, you need to be right about not drawing dead more than 2/3 of the time you make this call for it to be profitable for you. Barring some huge statistical over/underestimation, I think that's a good figure to use as a benchmark.

[iceman5]

Folding AT in this spot is a mistake I would think.

[Stoneburg]

I would call with AT expecting to see the naked (or a set/two-pair) a lot more often than a made flush. Of course the problem is that if opponent actually has a flush... I'm dead, and if he doesn't... he's live. AT is only 60/40 against the naked which kind of sucks.