empire 5-10 turn decision

[forssell]

10-handed 5-10 blind game on Empire. Utg limps, mp limps, I limp with AcQhTc9d in CO, button limps, SB completes and BB checks. 6-way flop comes 8h7c2c. Checked to me and I pot it (58), SB calls, Utg calls, others fold. Turn Ks. SB checks, Utg bets pot -232-. Utg has 700 left, I have 910 and SB covers us. I called, SB pushed, Utg folded and I called. Utg seemed a bit fishy but SB was a good player.

How did I do?

[Hofstra]

I don't play these limits, so probably my reasoning here will be too simplistic. Hard to put your opponents on a hand here. I don't think either of them has a set of 8s, since we would have heard from them on the flop. If Monk is right then good players try to get their money in with top set on the flop. What can UTG suddenly get excited about on the turn, knowing that others have an interest in the hand? Looks to me like he hoped that your bet on the flop was positional and that he might take it with something like middle or bottom set. He folded to the raise so he doesn't have KK or 88.

With your call you indicate that you're drawing to the SB. If I were SB and had a hand like KT98 with two clubs in it I might have pushed there, knowing that UTG would likely fold and that I'm a favorite to win the hand against you. Even more so if he hit his set of kings.

But anyway, you have 7 club outs to the nuts and 6 straight outs, which could give you a split. Since SB most likely has some kind of a made hand and/or have some of your outs, we cannot be sure about the Kc and the 8c. Also, your straight outs might only give a split, but let's be optimistic. Then the call is pretty marginal. I would have a hard time laying this down. The more tricky SB is, the more inclined to call I'd be. The reason I say this is because I can imagine him calling the flop with a mediocre hand if he reads you for a draw and UTG for a medium hand, just so that he could outplay you when the draws miss on the turn.

Finally, I would have considered raising the turn; especially if you are going to call allin anyway. The combined chances of UTG trying to steal it with a medium hand and that SB will fold give you folding equity.


I'm interested in the experts' opinions and the outcome...

Pieter

[Felonius_Monk]

I'd raise that hand preflop from the CO, especially if you figure you might lose the blinds.

Pot the flop obviously.

On the turn, I don't like the raise here TOO much unless UTG is liable to lay down his hand (which is obviously very opponent specific) but getting both players to fold seems highly unlikely so you'd be risking a lot of chips on a hand you're no better than 30-35% to win, on the off chance they both might fold. I don't like that play much. Clearly, you have ample odds to call his first bet, however. Also, your pot odds are improved by letting the SB in so I have no qualms about letting him plump up the pot for you after you've acted.

Someone must presumably have at least two pair or perhaps a set, once the SB gets all in, unless you had a specific read on these opponents (i.e. over-pushing draws) to suggest otherwise. KK or perhaps two pair with draws seems likely for the SB, he might even be on 88 and waiting for a safe turn to check-raise all in (not such a bad play on this flop as a change of pace, which is always good for deception value in the bigger money games). So you have 13 clean nut outs, perhaps call it 14 on the chance there's two pair out and thus one of the board-pairing flush outs will be good. There's, by my calculations at least, about 1400 in the pot and it's a bit under 700 to you to call, so you're getting paid a bit more than 2:1 on the call. With your hand you beat a naked set about 1/3 of the time, so you're getting decent odds to call. If the SB has some of your outs covered, however, then you're not getting pot odds to call.

Basically, the call at the end seems to me to be somewhere close to neutral EV. Unless there's any chance the SB is pushing a hand less than 2 pair (which seems unlikely), the call is probably neutral or a tiny bit negative, value wise. So, if you don't have a huge BR to absorb variance, it's probably a fold. HOWEVER, there's often several big stacks (4 or 5 buyins) sat at the 1000 games, and it is very advantageous to build a deep stack in able to make a massive score against one of these players, especially if any of them are excessively loose or poor. So there COULD be a good reason to make the call, if there is a future advantage to you of building a large stack. If everyone is around 1 buyin, then there's no specific advantage to you to take a slightly -ve EV proposition in order to build a stack, so folding is perhaps marginally the best. However, there's no harm to a) showing that you're prepared to gamble with a draw and b) showing that you're prepared to play for your stack and give action. Against decent players that's not a bad advertising play, and so makes it more worthwhile.

So, in summary, it's perhaps a tiny bit -ve EV to call, but I can see certain non-mathematical reasons for doing so on this particular table. Most people call here (I think I do, in all honesty) with such a big pot and an (apparently) big draw in your hand, and in truth against the likely SB holdings you're not massively -ve anyhow, so really I don't see a problem with calling at all. I think you played it pretty well, the only thing I do different is bump it up preflop.

My take on it anyhow, thoughts?

[forssell]

[Felonius_Monk]

I still don't like the turn push too much but I agree it's VERY opponent specific. You need significant (and I mean SIGNIFICANT) fold equity for it to be good, and somehow it's hard to see that here, but I guess it's possible. That stop-go play from the UTG sure was very wierd...