Getting all set with bottom set (100nl FR)

[Pozzo]

MP1 is 22/9/3.5. Appears solid, I haven't seen him do anything silly.
UTG is 47/2/2. Keeps winning big pots with junk hands.

Is this a super weak fold? The fact that I've lost bottom sets to over sets on the flop 3 times in the last few days may have affected my decision.


100NL FR

Stack sizes:
UTG: $163.65
UTG+1: $81
UTG+2: $106.80
MP1: $97.50
MP2: $151.10
Pozzo: $95
CO: $65.90
Button: $46.50
SB: $99
BB: $169.30

Pre-flop: (10 players) Pozzo is MP3 with .
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 raises to $4, MP2 folds, Pozzo calls, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop:: ($13.5, 3 players)
UTG bets $5, MP1 calls, Pozzo raises to $20, UTG calls, MP1 raises all-in $88.5, Pozzo folds...

[Calaziar]

Don't you have to call and then rebuy? I think it's an overpair but JJ or TT wouldn't surprise me too much, board is dangerous and he would play any of those fast if he's solid. I doubt he'd do that with just the nut FD if your read is right. I can't see a solid player FR raising ATs from there very often but I suppose that's possible, but why overcall your raise with second pair and the nut FD? He can't believe his image is going to buy the pot, can he? Would he have raised 89s from MP1 pf? If I were playing with your money I'd call. Might fold with mine and kick myself after it got to SD. My last question is would he play AA-KK this way?

[ua1176]

im ok with this fold.

fishy action from a normally solid player often means a monster.

i think you fold the winner some of the time here, definitely. but this looks a lot like JJ/TT to me.

jon

[shamdonk]

I don't fold. ever.

[k3nt]

If he had AA-QQ that would be an incredibly fishy flat call on the flop. That's a very very draw-y board. Seriously looks like a set. Weak then strong is a monster, and unless he's an idiot he doesn't think AA-QQ or JT is a monster here.

I think it's borderline. Standard is to play for it all with every flopped set, and mostly I do that. But on occasion, especially if it will tilt you to lose yet again, a fold can be the most +EV play.

[black_knight6]

I call...this ISN'T a set just as, or more, often than it is...AA/KK/QQ or AK/KQs could make this play no problem.

[Pozzo]

[Triple B]

Weak fold IMO. I instacall.

[DoctorHandles]

[Schuster]

Why bother calling preflop if you're going to fold here?

Lee

[Xaston]

[Cooper]

[NorthView]

I call here as long as the FD is a candidate.

[Pozzo]

Thanks everyone. I agree the fold was pretty weak. Given my read of the situation I'm OK with it but I wanted to see what you all would do, even though I expected mostly "i insta-call" responses. I think I just psyched myself out due to the fact that I've lost a lot of money lately with bottom set in multi-way pots where all the money goes in on the flop, and afterwards when I lose I think, "well, duh...".

Results, if anyone's interested: Preflop raiser had AA, so my read was totally wrong on him. UTG called the all-in with [Ts] and made his flush. I ran the hand through PokerStove and it said I had 54% equity.

[k3nt]

See, that's the thing. I thought he couldn't be on AA because that would be such a fishy play. But people make fishy plays all the time. That's how we make money. Which is why although I think about it, I actually almost never fold sets on uncoordinated boards. I think I've done it once.