by iceman5 » Tue Oct 24, 2006 10:56 am
Some of you probably have heard me complaining about my now 10 week break even streak. This is misleading because Ive played several different stakes in that time.
I took a break about 3 weeks ago and in that 3 weeks, Im +$2500 or so, so it isnt all bad, but in total, Ive broken even over the past 10 weeks.
Since my break, Im at 4.5 PTBBs at $2/$4 NL and 3 PTBBs at $1/$2 NL. I was playing well at $2/$4 NL and was around 8PTBBs but then started losing and it tapered down which is when I went back to $1/$2. My win rate at $1/$2 is horrible compared to what I used to be able to do and this is over 9K hands. SO needless to say, Im not feeling too good about my overall game. I have no idea how much of this is bad play and how much is variance.
I do know that this all started soon after I started watching the Cardrunners videos and started raising alot more preflop. it worked for a while but what I notice now is this.
I used to make a good amount of money with hands like KQ against KT with a flopped K. But not all that many guys call raises with KT, so now when I raise KQ, I hardly ever make any money when K flops. I bet the flop and if the guy calls he probably has a draw (or a set) and not a K with a smaller kicker. So Im not going to get called at all 3 streets unless Im beat. In an unraised pot its much more likely I'll win a decent pot by out kicking him.
I can think of alot of these same type sceanrios. Basically, Im folding off the hands I dominate by raising so much preflop. If I raise AT and flop and ace, odds are, the guy doesnt have A3, but in an unraised pot, thats very well what happens alot.
I do win more small pots by raising preflop when we both miss, but I dont think its enough money to compensate for these other spots where Im missing out on money.
So, my plan for now is to raise only premium hands and speculative hands like suited connectors, but not other hands like AT and KQ (unless im on the button and its folded to me). I dont think raising limpers with these hands is working.
This is what I used to do when I was crushing $1/$2 NL to the tune of 10-11 PTBBs. We'll see what happens.
iceman5