Weak overpair OOP

[iceman5]

$400NL 6 max

I raise to $16 UTG with [Th]. Button calls.

Pot $38. Flop [8s][2c]. I bet $32 and he calls.
Pot $102. Turn . Whats your standard play here? There are a couple different draws. He could also have a set or 2 pair. In general , I dont think this is a good spot especiallly OOP, so I would normally check and see what he does. The problem that I see is that in the games that I play, when I check here, he is going to bet almost every time, no matter what he has. From his point of view, it looks like I have AK / AQ type hand and Im giving up. So I cant just check fold.

So I checked and he bet full pot. $102. Well, this could mean anything. I have no read at all, but like I said, in these games, when I check the turn n a raised pot, the other guy bets almost every time.

So do I call him? I dont see how I can call because Im OOP and I have no idea if he has me beat or if hes semibluffing. If I try to call and re-evaluate the river, Im gong to have to check/fold to a million different cards that will complete a draw. Also, he could have a flush draw and overcards, which would add the rest of the cards in the deck to cards that will out draw me. So if I call the turn, "to re-evaluate the river", Im going to have to fold almost every time.

So I see my choices on the turn as either check / fold....or check raise all in. If I CRAI, I make a good deal of money from all the times he semibluffs the turn but wont call the CRAI because I have him beat and he doesnt have odds to call. I also make extra money from him ifs hes just floating the flop with nothing as alot of these guys seem to do. He could easily have something like 33 here and be trying to take it away on the turn. If I bet the turn he folds 33.

So against his total hand range, is this CRAI a viable option?

[JJSCOTT2]

First of all, I'd preferrably like to know a little something about the guy before making that decision. But you do make a good point and I think that his range here is plenty wide to CRAI, I'd actually probably be surprised if you lost this pot.

[Jarren]

I think this is a read dependant thing mostly and an argument can be made for the CRAI, check-fold, check call and bet

normally I am more likely to bet here and re-evaluate on the river.

sure you may get milked a bit with some big hands but it makes your decisions easier. If he raises you can decide if he is full of it or not and if he calls you can check fold or check call the river if it isn't too scary

I am not a huge fan of leading but I would rather lead then fold to a raise or lead then check the river than check here. It costs the same amount of money and I get more info plus i win a pot from time to time

So in theory..some examples (just speculating)

1. I lead for $80 he calls. River bricks, I check, he bets $150 - $250, I call = total additional cost $230 - $330
2. I check, he bets $102, I call. River bricks I check he bets, I almost have to fold. = total costs $102 plus no chance at winning pot
3. I check he bets $102, i check raise all in = total cost rest of my money
4. I lead for $80, he raises I fold. = total cost $80
5. I lead for $80 he calls. Rver bricks we check = total cost $80
6. I lead for $80 he folds. = total cost $80

leading for $80 seems like the best move for me here.

edit: also I am ignoring the two facts that you could lead the flop and spike a gin card (like a red 7) or lead again on the river to win, I just assume you wouldn't lead the river without some good evidence he missed a draw, so I left that option out

[iceman5]

[Jarren]

[shamdonk]

[Jarren]

Well just calling isn't bad but there are a lot of crappy river cards for that board

if a spade, T, J, Q, K, A fall your going to throw up...especially if you check the river and he shoves

[iceman5]

When he bet the full pot, I really thought I was ahead. I wanted to CRAI, but then could hear GP in my ear telling me not to raise because I'll only get called by hands that beat me and that my hand has good showdown value.

I always disagree with him when i watch his videos and I disagreed with the voice in my head so I CRAI anyway. The guy folded.

So I was almost certainly ahead and yeah, he folded a hand that I beat, but I just dont see how I can just call there because its way to easy to make a mistake on the river by either paying him off when he outdraws me or check / folding the river to a scare card because I dont know what cards beat me and which ones just scare me.

[Jarren]

One thing I think needs to be mentioned and that is this is not an easy hand. It isn't one of those clear cut kind of things. It is a great hand for discussion but it is also a very difficult hand to play

[iceman5]

By the way...when I said I always disagree with GP when I watch his vidoes, I was referring to this situation only. Not that I disagree with him in general.

[AlexMR]

[iceman5]

[Ojingo]

[ua1176]

[iceman5]