JJ hand OOP ($100NL 6-max)

[ua1176]

$100NL 6-max @ Tribeca

CO raises to $5. he's the same scandinavian villain from my KK post. this is on a different table and about 30 minutes later. he seems loose and aggressive....not great but not completely stupid. i call from the SB with [Js]. i have $160 and he has about $115

flop: [7c][4h]
pot: $11

i check, he bets $8. i call.

turn:
pot: $27

i check, he bets $18, i call

river:
pot: $63

thoughts? river plans?

thanks,

jon

[Allstar7]

you're river decision would be a hel of alot easier if you had led eithe rthe flop or turn. Not sure why you wouldn't..can you explain.

As played I think its a c/c on the river, but unless he's a total idiot, wtf are you beating now?

[ua1176]

i didn't lead the flop because he's aggressive enough that he may raise my flop bet with T-x or a bluff, in addition to AA, KK, QQ, and TT. i feel that against this player i get blown off my hand if i lead the flop.

i do think i could have led the turn. i can see him paying off with T-x to a turn bet. but i felt that the chances of him 2-barreling T-x or a bluff were greater than the chances of him paying off a turn bet.

after the turn action....i think his range can be broken down into 3 categories:

1. T-x. i should obviously c/f here. he's not folding trips on the river.

2. bluffs. i should obviously c/c here. he might fire 3 barrels (i've previously seen him fire 2). however i think the 2nd T on the river decreases the chance of him bluffing because he could easily put me on a T. so i think most blufs will probably give up.

3. stronger overpairs. i have enough left relative to the pot size, and my line is consistent enough with T-x that i might very well push him off KK or QQ if i bet big on the river. that's the most interesting part of the hand for me....whether he'll fold KK or QQ, and whether he has these frequently enough compared to T-x or a bluff.


the short answer is this: yes the hand would be easiest to play if i led the flop, and somewhat easier if i led the turn. but i don't think "easiest" equates to "most +EV".

jon

[gsdavid]

[MVPSPORTS]

As played, c/f river... You lose to basically everything

[black_knight6]

Why are you such a CS?!

Raise the turn...or check-call the river. Problem is that you don't know if he has QQ-AA since all you've done is check-call! CR the flop maybe.

[iceman5]

[ua1176]