by Calaziar » Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:57 pm
That's an underbet. In order to protect his stack and the pot he needed to bet at least $70. So he either doesn't realize this or he does and is inviting a call or an overcall. If you just call and are behind you will only need to get another $44 on the river if you hit to make the call 'correct'. If you push and are trailing you are a 3.6:1 dog and are giving 2.09:1 odds to him to call. Will he fold Broadway here? Would he fold a small flush here? What about redraws? I think the push may buy you some hands you are losing to but whether you get enough folds and beat the redraws often enough to pay for the times you draw and lose to straights and flushes (72%) is questionable.
Remember, if you are ahead and just call and remain ahead you just need $44 more to justify your call . 2pair is drawing dead and sets are drawing to one out unless they have a diamond so the only set to worry about is 77 and for 2pair to have a diamond one of his cards must be the 7d. This is why I think he has a flush. One advantage to calling is you can change your mind if a bad card hits and lose less. Of course your opponent may not call if he is behind and doesn't hit whereas he would possibly payoff the AAA now. I call and bet the river if a blank or a boardpair comes. I check/fold to diamonds and probably bet/fold offsuit Q or T.
Last edited by
Calaziar on Sun Oct 29, 2006 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
My luck is so bad that if I bought a cemetery, people
would stop dying.
~Ed Furgol