Player analysis (PLO)

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Here's the basic profile: Very aggro raiser who plays around 50% of all hands and at thge 2/4 was raising 21% over about 100 hands (only 8% on about the same number of hands in the 1/2). He also will CB pot almost always and almost always raises pot (I was hoping to go through pt to check this, but I'm guessing he'll CB pot maybe 75% of the time, whether he hits or not and whether or not it's multi-way. I may still try to do this and put it in a separate post).

Here's a selection of hands I've seen raised: lots of AA and KK hands, KQT8, A752 (!), 89TJ, QTT5, AKJ7. Here are some hands I've seen him not raise: 4567 (!), J877, some other not noteable ones, but also QQ33 and A9TJ with a ss A (the latter is borderline shocking giving the raising frequency). Looks like lots of AA and KK (I've seen two of his KK hands, both of which were raised--KKQ6 and KK97, so nothing phenomenal there).

I've won some decent pots against him but also lost some big ones (pretty clearly down against him), so I wanted to try to "optimize" the way to play against him.

One obvious question is to c-r or to bet out OOP. I noticed that when Darwinism played back at him at the 2/4, he did bet out a low straight with a flush redraw in a big pot, and betting out has its advantages, although the c-r is tempting on big hands. But it's unclear to me whether Darwinism is playing the 2/4 with much of a read at all, since he's 8-tabling at least. Maybe he can still keep track of reads playing that many tables, but he may be playing the smaller games (for him) more or less mechanically.

Here are the pros and cons, as I see it: Check-raising allows you to build a bigger pot on your big hands, but it allows aggro raiser to buy it with air, as he'll definitely do. If you're sitting to the immediate right of aggro raiser (which I think is very advantageous), then it's probably worth check-raising even an overpair with pretty minimal draw as long as the rest of the table has folded. But if you're OOP with some other players between you and the raiser, this gets rather risky. Betting out gives you a sense of where you're at with respect to the rest of the table.

It's also not clear to me which way is really going to create the more profitable situations. Let's say, for example, you flopped top set. If you bet out, someone with middle set or top 2, I think, (whether it be raiser or someone else) is much more likely to push or at least call if you've bet out. And it also allows you to get away from your own middle set or top 2 if you're drawing dead.

I'm almost inclined to say that the best way to go in these raised pots is to c-r strong draws against this kind of player but to bet out acceptable made hands. I think I like that approach pretty well in multi-way pots against this guy, who's also going to CB air a lot of the time.

Then there's the question of more short-handed situations, which obviously occur a lot against this kind of player. I almost think the same thing applies, although perhaps with a little variation. Maybe here bet out middle set, 2 pair, overpair and mediocre draws, while check-raising stronger draws and naked top set (also putting top set with additional redraw in the "bet out" category).

So much for now.

Comments?

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