Getting played back at again (PLO8 $200)

[GooperMC]

FullTiltPoker Game #1199101598: Table Fremont - $1/$2 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 11:51:37 ET - 2006/11/05
Seat 1: maddog8 ($218.50)
Seat 2: skye hi ($95.35)
Seat 3: Kuster ($246.70)
Seat 4: pgfmr82 ($195.25)
Seat 5: Gamblin4Jesus ($198)
Seat 6: adbynot ($196)
Seat 7: spawnx ($141.50)
Seat 8: GeeBee ($321.25)
Seat 9: Isurecanwin ($187.40)
Isurecanwin posts the small blind of $1
maddog8 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #8

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Gamblin4Jesus
skye hi folds
Kuster folds
pgfmr82 folds
Gamblin4Jesus raises to $7
adbynot folds
spawnx folds
GeeBee calls $7
Isurecanwin calls $6
maddog8 folds

*** FLOP ***
Isurecanwin checks
Gamblin4Jesus bets $23
GeeBee folds
Isurecanwin raises to $92
Gamblin4Jesus ????

Over 50 hands Isurecanwin stats:
VP$IP 31
WtSD: 28
W$SD: 33
Flop Agg Freq: 46
Turn Agg Freq: 33
River Agg Freq: 50

[Kuso]

i'd usually let it go without a more well-developed read (specifically, he'd jam with nut low draw and one pr or he bluffs a lot).

at this level, i'd usually fold since people tend not to make big CRs with air. his aggr freq stats suggest that he might be up to some shenanigans, but you can't really assume that these are reliable with so few hands -- he may just be on a heater.

my own stats on this guy suggest that he probably has a pretty big hand -- at least top set, maybe something like 2pr or better with the nut low draw.

[Phil153]

I was going to agree with Kuso, then I looked at some numbers.

You need 41% equity to push here if he calls every time. If he folds even a small percentage of the time, you need less.

Here's how you fare against his calling hands:

You have 46.7% equity against A249 (top pair and uncounterfeitable low draw)
You have 54% equity against A29K
You have 50.2% equity against A268 (low draw + open ended straight draw)
You have 61.5% equity against A2KK
You have 48% equity against A397 (2 pair, no low draw)
You have 40% equity against A399
You have 26% equity against A239 (2 pair, nut low draw)
You have 15.6% equity against A299
You have 44% equity against QQ99 ( a set, no low draw)
You have 57% equity against a four card wrap

Conclusion: Given his aggressiveness and possible donkishness, you should push all in. I agree with Kuso about having a better read, but you'd have to be in a very unlikely spot to be in serious trouble here. Over the distribution of even a reasonable, semi aggressive player, I'd say a push is slightly +EV.

[Kuso]

[Phil153]

[Mendacious]

He most likely has a set-- maybe a low draw, but I am not so sure that it is a better low draw than you have. Personally I would play a set and a good low draw for a smaller raise.

I guess there is a smaller probablity he has A268 and this is a semi-bluff.

I think I would tend to fold here.

My stats on this player do not rate him as particularly aggressive (moderate) over 1800 hands or so.

[Kuso]

[predator06]

[Phil153]

I think this discussion would be far more useful if we just used the information available in the OP. Because that's all Gooper had at the time of making the decision, and we encounter these situations with limited information fairly often (especially for those of us that aren't datamining cheats).

If I have information that says player x only raises with monsters, then of course the OP should fold. But we're here to discuss the general case as well as specific players. The numbers here indicate a push is correct except against very nitty players.

[GooperMC]

[januarymute]

[Kuso]

[januarymute]

[Kuso]