Top Set with AA vs. FD (300 NL)

[T-Rod]

300 NL 6max Prima.

I have A[d] A[s] UTG. I have 326 and villain covers. He's 45/9/1.2

I raise to 12 (x4bb) UTG. Villain calls in UTG +1.

Flop ($40) A[h] Q[h] 6[d] I lead 30, he calls.

Turn ($100). T[h]. I lead $55, he calls.

River ($210) 7[d]. We have about a pot sized left each.

What's villain have?

[adamh]

[DoctorHandles]

WTF is with the turn bet?

[T-Rod]

[The Golden 1]

[GodlikeRoy]

His range imo is: QQ, TT, 66, AQ, AT, A6, Kh xh, Jh x, and of course two hearts (KJh, K9h, J9h, 98h, 87h, 76h, 65h, 54h). I bet $90 on the turn and call a push. Top set in a re-raised pot i'm stacking off if he has a lower flush, which I think is a little more unlikely given the fact the , and are all on the board which vastly reduces the possibility of holdings he can have that contain a flush.

As played I check-call any bet on the river.

[ua1176]

check/fold is good on this river. he's passive enough that you'll see a lot of showdowns for free.

i dont think he's calling a big push here with AK. i have to imagine he'd have raised with AQ or AT or something before the river. cause thats what passive donks do: raise the turn with monsters.

so i think he's got a flush or very little, and he doesnt seem aggro enough to put you to the test by bluff-shoving.

if he bets something silly i probably call. but if he shoves im ok folding.

jon

[GodlikeRoy]

How many hands do you have these stats over?

[T-Rod]

[Zmej]

[Stoneburg]

[T-Rod]

I called his push which seemed a little too quick. Unfortunately he had K[h] 4[h] and crushed me.

In this hand, forum/viewtopic.php?t=19919 many advocate pounding the turn even when the flush card hits. I cant' say I "pounded" but I did bet and still got stacked.

So the question is what's more EV?

Don't let up with your set, but you basically give a guy implied odds to call and get paid off on his flush since I'm not folding (granted he only has 7.5 outs).

Or do you check the turn, and probably get away from it on the river.

[T-Rod]

Also,

As played, do you think my read is correct on the turn when I do NOT put him on the flush because he just calls my bet instead of raising?

Hence, I put him on a set/two pair and called his overbet on the river.

[DoctorHandles]

[poker2006]