Try to steal on the river (PLO8 $200)

[GooperMC]

POKERSTARS GAME #7078199921: OMAHA HI/LO POT LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2006/11/18 - 17:58:19 (ET)
Table 'Bali' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: tripblind187 ($212.15 in chips)
Seat 2: GooperMC ($195.20 in chips)
Seat 3: mustafa ($536.30 in chips)
Seat 4: outlaw ($290.60 in chips)
Seat 5: kyct69 ($163.05 in chips)
Seat 6: Sheepman ($200 in chips)
Seat 7: action-Jan ($209.80 in chips)
Seat 8: UMEE ($164.75 in chips)
Seat 9: NaturalOne ($208.50 in chips)
UMEE: posts small blind $1
NaturalOne: posts big blind $2
Sheepman: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to GooperMC
tripblind187: folds
GooperMC: raises $6 to $8
mustafa: folds
tripblind187 leaves the table
outlaw: calls $8
kyct69: folds
Sheepman: folds
action-Jan: folds
UMEE: folds
NaturalOne: folds

*** FLOP ***
Hveddell joins the table at seat #1
GooperMC: bets $15
outlaw: calls $15

*** TURN ***
GooperMC: checks
outlaw: checks

*** RIVER ***
GooperMC: bets $30
outlaw: raises $30 to $60
GooperMC: folds

outlaw is mostly tight and a little agressive.

I bet 1/2-2/3 pot when I am value betting so I try and steal with simliar bets.

[davebreal]

[Kuso]

1) as dave said, at stars you're going to get called down here WAY too much by non-str8 hands.

2) stars are a bunch of chasing mofos, so if a draw got there, you may be repping what they have. this is one thing that makes the games at stars soft, but this combined with 1 means that "repping" big hands on the river is not necessarily a good idea (at least in my experience).

3) you did not tell a convincing story in this hand. you made a pfr OOP -- for most people this is AAxx or A2xx. you then CBed a janky flop that didn't really help either of these hands -- maybe AAxx suited then. you checked the turn, so did you chickened out with AAxx? you bet the river when there's no low, so either you had to have AATx to be good here. i'd call you with as little as 2pr here.

4) why did you raise this hand OOP. there are SO many things wrong with it. there were no limpers before you, so you weren't "priming the pot". this is a pull hand, but you pushed. with position, a raise might get you one or more free cards that this hand is usually going to want to see cheaply but OOP you put yourself in a really awkward spot with regards to CBs, bluffs, etc. you'd get a fishy note for raising that hand in EP from me. yuck.

[GooperMC]

[JDLush]

[Phil153]

[GooperMC]

[Kuso]

further thoughts:

- if you think he'd fold more than 1 in 3, then go for it. follow your read.

- i tend not to want to make this bet unless i think he'll fold about 50% of the time. 33% is EV neutral, and i'm not sure EV neutral plays have much "image" value at these stakes. again, i suppose it really just depends on the texture of the table and the specific player(s) in the pot.

- maybe stars has changed a lot since party closed, but whenever i play there, i always seem to be mumbling "you called me down with WHAT?!?!?". it doesn't matter whether i'm dragging a big pot with the nuts, when i make a bare nut low bluff or a straight up bluff, or when i bet a marginal hand on a scary board and villain calls me with a slightly better or slightly worse hand (but definitely nothing close to the nuts) -- i'm constantly amazed at what i get called down by. as such, i'm contstantly in value bet mode unless i have a rock-solid read that villain likes to fold. ymmv.

- another thing i noticed about stars is that they tend not to like full-pot bets on the end without a huge hand. i don't know if it's too transparent to bluff full pot and value bet smaller, but it's an idea.

[JDLush]