PLO8 $100: Jamming the flop?

[MattSk]

This hand is similar to Phil's hand he posted recently. I have top pair and 2nd nut low draw. But I have got an additional gut shot draw. Do I have enough value to go all-in on the flop?

I have played only 30 hands with villain. He was too loose preflop but made no big mistakes postflop.

Gulf of Honduras 10475004-83443 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit $0.50/$1
Hand Start.
Seat 1 : alexkong has $17
Seat 3 : MattSk has $181.38
Seat 4 : Blue-Moon has $94.88
Seat 5 : thunder rd has $0
Seat 6 : marcuse has $100.09
Seat 7 : Livia*Starr has $45.62
Seat 8 : andkrav has $74.12
Seat 9 : pokerlisa has $73.50
MattSk is the dealer.
Blue-Moon posted small blind.
marcuse posted big blind.
Game [83443] started with 7 players.
Dealing Hole Cards.
Seat 3 : MattSk has 5[h] A[c] 6[c] 9[s]
Livia*Starr folded.
andkrav folded.
pokerlisa folded.
alexkong folded.
MattSk called $1 and raised $2.50
Blue-Moon folded.
marcuse called $2.50
Dealing flop.
Board cards 9[c] 4[d] 2[d]
marcuse checked.
MattSk bet $7.50
marcuse called $7.50 and raised $22.50
MattSk called $22.50 and raised $67.50
marcuse called $66.59 and is All-in

[GooperMC]

I don't like it. There are a couple of major difference between this hand and the one that Phil posted

1) Phil plays a style of game that makes other people play badly. This means that he needs less to go to showdown becuase people will be calling and betting with less

2) Phil was getting 4:1 and closing the action when it came back around to him. You are puttin in the 3rd bet with a very marginal holding.

3) There was no flush draw on Phils hand

4) Phil had a pair of Q's you have a pair of 9's

5) Phil was looking for fold equity with the CR, then got caught with his pants down but was getting too good of odds to fold. You don't have much fold equity putting in the 3rd bet and you aren't pot commited.

Run some equity numbers and I think you will see you are going to lose money in the long run.

Here are some samples:

Against bad hands
Against XX: You are 45%
Against XX: You are 47%
Against XX: You are 56%
Against XX: You are 56%
Against XX: You are 49%
Against XX: You are 52%

Against good hands
Against XX: You are 36%
Against XX: You are 36%
Against : You are 26%
Against : You are 40%

Etc.

[JDLush]

[Felonius_Monk]

Given your read on opponent this seems like a fold. Annoying because it's a purdy hand.

[januarymute]

[Phil153]