How bad is this?

[Mendacious]

I am starting to think one of my biggest leaks in this game is the high-risk bluff (heavily dependent on the opponent not having the nuts and being capable of laying down if they have a good hand but are way behind).

This hand below is a classic example.

Seat 1: adbynot ($655.80)
Seat 2: GAME OVER 73 ($335.30)
Seat 3: Mendacious ($400)
Seat 4: EVGA ($284.35)
Seat 5: ONEHOLEWIZ ($356.70)
Seat 6: clown god ($373.50)
Seat 7: ns238 ($417)
Seat 8: Isurecanwin ($422.65)
Seat 9: Fooge ($506.90)
ONEHOLEWIZ posts the small blind of $2
clown god posts the big blind of $4
5 seconds left to act
Mendacious posts $4
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mendacious [6h 2c 3d Th]
ns238 calls $4
Isurecanwin calls $4
Fooge folds
adbynot folds
GAME OVER 73 folds
Mendacious checks
EVGA folds
ONEHOLEWIZ calls $2
clown god checks
*** FLOP *** [As 7d Ac]
ONEHOLEWIZ checks
clown god checks
ns238 checks
Isurecanwin bets $20
Mendacious calls $20
ONEHOLEWIZ folds
clown god folds
ns238 folds
*** TURN *** [As 7d Ac]
Isurecanwin bets $60
Mendacious raises to $240
Isurecanwin: wow
Isurecanwin: here is the river
Isurecanwin has 15 seconds left to act
Isurecanwin raises to $398.65, and is all in
Mendacious calls $136, and is all in
Isurecanwin shows [Ad Jh Jd Kd]
Mendacious shows [6h 2c 3d Th]

Is this just completely completely unredeemably bad? My thoughts and reads:
Isurecanwin is a pretty solid player willing to splash the pot with big bets and I think decent enough to fold if she is in a bad spot.

On the flop I put her at like 90% or so to have the Ace, and maybe 25% to have the boat. My thoughts were that if a low card came, I would have leverage against her, if she had just an Ace, and if a high card game she would fold to a re-raise if she didn't have the boat, and sometimes even if she already had the Ace six. The Jack seemed like about the perfect card to come over her on, and take away the pot. And obviously I still had outs to bail me out for the low.

In this case I think it unlucky that she had a Jack, (at least statistically). Does anyone think my fold equity justifies this kind of bluff? Does anyone think that even if this play fails too often to be profitable that it is redeemed even slightly by future calls. Keep in mind, this is not even a remotly standard move, but does "game theory" or anything justify mixing in this type of move from time to time in this situation?

[januarymute]

Yeah, that's awful. Mainly because he doesn't have to have a boat to call... an ace w/ any 2 low cards will usually call there. In general, I think bluffing on a board with 2 aces is going to be significantly -EV, because most players know intuitively not to get out of hand with trip aces since the other ace is likely to be out if they're getting called.

[Mendacious]

[januarymute]

[Mendacious]

[januarymute]

[predator06]

[Mendacious]

[Mendacious]

[JDLush]

I would feel a hell of a lot better trying that move with something like A35x or something if you were up against an average donk. Given the read you have and the knowledge that this player could lay down a hand other than AJ I don't think the play is awful, but after a flat call on the flop it's going to smell a little funny.

I do think there are better spots to risk your stack on, and if you want to do it with a bluff then a board that does not have AA would be desirable, as mute said.

[Mendacious]

again...I mostly agree, but the point of the play is to represent that I called with a bare Ace and that the Jack made my boat. This is why I alluded that I would not try this if a King hit on the turn, because I don't think a call with AK is reasonable there, but AJ is. That is the problem with a "fancy" play, is it assumes a hell of a lot.

[predator06]

[JDLush]

[Mendacious]

[Mendacious]