i don't like hand 1. what hand would most players raise UTG with, call a reraise, and then call a healthy continuation bet? JJ, QQ, KK, AA,
[Kh]maybe AQs since he's in position. how many of those hands do you beat? one, and even that one has 12 outs against you.
Back off, lick your wounds, and check fold this hand. there's just so few hands that you're ahead of.
hand 2: i don't like this river push. While i think you have the best hand, it also looks like you may have rivered him (unless he was calling you down with the naked
, in which cas ethe whole thing is a moot point). He seems like he's got an A with a big spade, maybe the
, maybe the
. Either way, unless he has AK, i don't see him calling your river push with any hand you beat.
I know you've been talking about thin river bets for a few months now, but i think this one is -EV, i just don't see enough hands that you beat calling here.
hand 3: I like this play. I'd rather have a read on the guy, but it's good for table image, it's HU in the blinds, so you've probably got folding equity, and i think in the long run it's +EV. obv. just hope he didn't flop a straight or and you're probably ok. I don't think this is as high variance as some of the draw pushes we see around here, since you're range is huge preflop to raise in position, but pretty small after his check raise to push. I think he folds probably 60-75% of the time here.