Deep 2/5NL Hand - Comments Appreciated

[Mad Genius]

I recently played a very interesting hand in a live 2/5 NL game. Normally I don't play higher than 1/2 baby NL, but this game had tons of money on the table and seemed beatable, so with a healthy live bankroll I decided to give it a shot.

Anyways, I sat down with the 500 buy-in, the maximum alotted. I was running pretty hot and doubled up when I got Kings early on. With a stack of $1200, I played a tough hand against who I consider to be one of the best NL players I have ever played against. My previous read on this guy had been that he was a tricky, aggressive player who was unpredictable but played very well postflop. I tried my best to stay away from him but he had a big stack and seemed willing to gamble a bit. He's got me covered in this hand.

In the CO, I find [Jd]. It's folded to me, and I limp. SB completes, and BB (villian) makes it $20. I call the additionall $15. SB folds. Villian has shown that he is capable of raising preflop with rags, although his postflop play isn't all that wild.

FLOP: [Jh][Ks] (Pot: $45) (2 players)

Villian checks. I throw out a small $20 bet. Villian makes it $60. I call.

TURN: (Pot: $165)

Villian bets $100. I raise to $300. He calls instantly.

RIVER: (Pot: $765)

Villian checks. I check behind him. I had about $800 left if that matters.

I think I played this hand pretty well. I didn't want to reveal the strength of my hand on the flop so I smooth called, planning to make my move on the turn. Also, if he had the flush draw I didn't want to scare him away. When the turn comes and he bet again, I was pretty sure he had a King. While he was aggressive, he normally didn't follow through on a bluff past the flop. I thought he most likely held KQ or AK, so I raised him a good amount to get him pot-committed. As far as the river check goes, well, I didn't know if I could play for my entire stack here. The way he called my $200 raise showed strength, and when the Ace hit, I was very scared of AK. He is the type of player who will vastly overbet pots or check on the river with the nuts. He is quite unpredictable. I just couldn't think of the right amount to bet. Why? Because if I bet small (~$200) then I could extract an extra $200 from him with a worse hand possibly, but I risk getting checkraised for my last $600. Am I willing to call off my last $600 here? I'm not sure. If I bet any more, say, $400, he probably won't call with a worse hand. If he had KQ, then he can't feel good about his hand and would probably lay it down. If he had AK or AA he just hit jackpot and could be trying to trap me. The only hand that I could get a reasonable amount from, I thought, was JJ. He didn't seem to be drawing for the flush, either.

Comments?[/b]

[iceman5]

The action is rather wierd and confusing, but I dont believe for a minute he has AK. I think he wouldve reraised the turn because he would be afraid you wouldnt bet the river if you didnt have a king.
If he has AK god bless him, but Im getting more money out of him at the river. I dont think he believes you have a king. He very well may have JJ. Im going all in at the river.

Great hand. Results please?

[Mad Genius]

Ice,

Why do you say that he would reraise with AK but not with JJ? On the turn, they are similar hands in that they are very likely to be ahead. I don't think the hearts really play because it was pretty clear to both of us that neither would be dumb enough to be drawing for the flush.

Regardless, he turned up Jacks, and as he did he correctly guessed my hand to be KJ. Of course I proudly turned it over and raked in the pot.

In retrospect I could have bet the river but I was a bit spooked by the fact that I had seen him checkraise the river with the nuts multiple times. I guess that's what intimidation does for you. After the game we chatted for a bit and he told me he would have folded to any reasonable river bet. Of course if he really thought I had KJ then I think it's reasonable to think that he would have raised me allin on the river. I am capable of laying that down on the river and he probably knows it.

[Johnny Hughes]

I just don't think a good player would check a hand that could beat yours to that board on fifth. It is a very dangerous board. I think a flush, straight, or trips might call a large bet. If he has your hand beat, he played it wrong. Johnny Hughes

[kennyg]

This river has to be bet. If he has AK or AA>..so be it. I think the question here is.....were you playing with scared money? I honestly beleive from what you posted...that was why you checked. It was too much money for you to handle. It would def. be too much for me....so I can understand it. just my thoughts

[Mad Genius]

Johnny, do you think a good player would play QT or a flush draw on the turn to the 200 raise? I think his turn play narrows his hands down to 3: JJ, AK, or KQ, with a small outside chance of AA.

On the river, he isn't calling anything with KQ. If he's got JJ he calls a value bet and I make 300 or so. If he's got AK then I lose 800. At the time it seemed reasonable to check. Maybe I was wrong.

And Kenny, I don't think I was playing with scared money. I definately was more careful, but that came as much from the fact that I wasn't playing with the everyday $100NL online moron as it came from playing higher stakes.

[iceman5]

I posted a hand not too long ago where I only called a river bet instead of making a big reraise. I had a set which turned into a boat. Only a cruel joe from the poker gods wouldve given the opponent a hand that beat me but I saw "monsters under the bed". I think thats what happened to you.

Sometimes its much clearer to analyze the hand when your not involved but i was 75% sure he had JJ from your description of the hand.

By the way, I dont believe for a second that he would lay down his JJ to a river bet by you.

[Rhound50]

Checking the river with the best hand is something I have adopted in the last couple months of playing live games. I use it a lot less online where people are less deep in their stacks. You are already in line to win a huge pot, by checking the river you keep your opponant from making you lay down what you think is the best hand and putting you on a decision for all you remaining chips. It might be a little passive but its a play I like.

[Mad Genius]

Rhound I was thinking along the lines that you are. I feel it's important that while you remain aggressive, that you don't put yourself in tricky situations when you are facing a good player. At the time, I did honestly believe he could check AK. Why? Let's think about it from his perspective. Whatever I have, he has to think he's beating me. It's clear. But I could have a monster myself (JJ, KJ), or I might not have much of a hand if I was raising the turn with trash. If I've got nothing, he's got no point betting into me since I will fold. If I've got a smaller boat he's 90% sure that I'll bet, at which point he can raise me allin and commit me for my stack. If he bets, I am likely just calling him, even with a smaller boat. And finally, if I don't have much or missed my draw, then he is giving me an opportunity to take one last stab at it. Against a passive player I would definately bet AK if I was in his shoes, but I had shown aggression throughout this hand and he had no reason to believe I wouldn't bet the river. Now, whether or not his chances of having AK were good is another story, but to me, that was a risk that I wasn't willing to take.

[iceman5]

Do you know what the odds are of him having AK in that situation? I dont know exactly but since there wouldve only been 2 kings left and they both flopped, the odds are the same as you flopping quads. The odds are even longer because now you have to factor in the odds of you hitting your jack and him hitting his ace later in the hand. The odds are astronomical. You had the mortal nuts. Being afraid of AK there is like having QQ...flopping Q66...and being afraid of the opponent having quad 6's. If it happens it happens, but you sure cant be afraid of it.

I understand you reasoning, but I think you judgement was clouded for whatever reason.

[Nortonesque]

[kennyg]

[Mad Genius]

Kenny you make some good points. But, while you say only 3 things beat me, there isn't a whole lot I'm beating by the way the hand has played out. You would have to play with this guy to know what I mean. He is not the type to call my $200 raise on the turn unless he has a BIG hand. He has no problem mucking even a very good hand when he knows he's beat, and on the turn I was showing SUCH strength, I was almost telling him that I had the nuts. To me it was clear as day that he had either JJ or AK (tiny chance of KQ, but I honestly think he would have folded that to my raise). One of them beats me and one of them doesn't. At that time, I wasn't sure that he had JJ, although the way the hand played out, it did seem more likely that he had it.

I think value betting in general becomes much tougher when you play with deep stacks. If this was a 2/4NL party game, we would already be allin on the flop or turn; however, playing with real stacks, I think you have to be cautious. I do think a value bet would have been fine, but knowing that he could only have such a narrow range of hands (JJ, AK) I was willing to take the free showdown.

Also, the reason why I didn't pop back on the flop was because at that point, he hadn't really defined his hand at all. His raise could have been with JJ or with 75. My bet was weak, and for all I know he could have been trying to pounce on my weakness. If I re-raise there it becomes very clear that I'm not messing around and that I have a real hand, which forces him to slow down on the turn. Again, playing with shallower stacks a re-raise might have worked but with such deep stacks my sole goal on the flop was to get all of it in, and I thought the turn would be a better place to push it hard.

[Felonius_Monk]

Ice, I take your points about the fact that it seems quite probable mad is ahead here, but I don't get your argument that it's nigh on impossible for the other guy to have AK odds-wise, given you put him on JJ. Surely there are 3 combinations of AK left in the "unseen" deck, and only one JJ? I think perhaps I misunderstood what you meant.

Monk
xxxxx

[iceman5]

Well, anything is possible and you play long enough you will see things you will never believe actually happened, but particular hand, the way the action played out I just didnt believe the guy had AK and I wouldve played for my stack here. Numbers wise it is possible of course. Its just so remote that Im willing to take the chance.

Like I said before I dont believe the guy when he said he would fold JJ there. And if he would then then he HAS to have QQ in the other big hand that Mad Genius posted.