How long must I wait?

[Aisthesis]

This is just another calculation (maybe I should have put it in the odds section, but whatever) that one can take as one will. I think it's mainly relevant for medium stacks--particuarly in tournament situations where the aggression level makes it tough to see flops without being almost pot-committed.

Anyhow, I'm going to call "truly good" starting hands JJ-AA and AK. Obviously, situationally, one wants to play more than these, and obviously, also, any pair has some major potential on the flop to hit a set, although I'm beginning to think trying to hit your set often has less tournament relevance than it does in cash games (they're just too rare, basically, although great when they happen--but attempting to play smaller pairs unimproved is yet another topic).

So, question is: How many hands must I normally wait until I get JJ-AA or AK?

Well, there are 1326 starting hands. Of these, there are 6 of each of the pairs and 16 AK hands, for a total of 24+16 = 40. 1326/40 = 33. So, every 33 hands you should be getting one these juicy ones on average.

And, if people are raising so often that I'm having trouble seeing a flop, I think I would be willing to play these things pretty hard PF. The waiting time really isn't all that bad (between 3 and 4 orbits).

[TexasKowboy]

Very interesting thread.

This is a point I want some of you to look at. I even do this sometimes but not as often as I once did.

Once the blinds start getting up to the T200 stage. People start to panic. They only have T2000 to T3000 in chips. We start thinking ok any A or any PP it's time to push. Your going to see a top ten hand about every 3 orbits. At this stage if you go all in pre flop someone is going to call you. If you have T1800 and your not one of the blinds you go all in with a top 10 hand and win. you double up T3600 plus both blind 3900. Now you can wait for the big hand to hit again and double up again. Say you get down to T3000 before the top 10 hand shows up. Now the blind at 250/500. You double up now you have T7000.

You see what is happening. Not only are you moving up the money list but you now have a chip stack that you can build on.

[oflaugherty]

Top 10 or top 6?

When you are on the short stack (10 big blinds or less) I can see going all in on a top 6 hand (AA-JJ, AKs, AKo).

However, the next four hands are not all that solid for an all-in: TT, AQs, AJs, KQs.

It seems like a better idea with the next four is to call the BB and see a flop. If you do hit, you can go all-in and suprise everyone ("What the hell was he doing calling with AQs?") otherwise, you are still alive to wait for a top 6 hand.

Incidentally, there are 6 of each of the pairs, 12 of each of the non-suited and 4 of each of the suited hands.

Therefore for the top six, there are 4*6 + 4 + 12 or 40 hands out of 1326 for about 3% of all hands.

For the next four hands, it's 6 + 3*4 or 18 out of 1326 for an additional 1.36%.

So top-10 vesus top-6 doesn't really add all that much.

[Gregor]

[TexasKowboy]