Thought process on this river please ($4 FR Tribeca)

[BigPhish]

I have a tight image, to the extent that my opponents at this level recognize what an image is.

Villain has been at the table for ~3 orbits and has done nothing to earn my attention. I always tag good and exceptionally bad players, so my read on him for this hand is typical Tribeca donk.

One limper to me in MP and I (~$11.00) pop it to 0.20 with TT. This is my typical raise and it usually gets no more than two callers. In this case, only SB (~$4.00) calls.

Flop (~0.45) comes 73Q with 2 clubs. FWIW, I have the Tc. SB insta-bets a weak 0.08.

For typical Tribeca Donks at this level, this means "Flush Draw". Sometimes it means a weak Q. Sometimes it means he hit an interesting spot while scratching his ass. Usually it's a FD though, so I decide to pop it up to 0.60. He calls. I now believe strongly he's on a FD.

Turn (~$1.85) comes the Qc, now 3 clubs and 2 Q's on the board. Unless he was scratching his ass with his flop bet, he just hit something I'm very unhappy with. He thinks a few seconds and checks. That's typical Tribeca donk speak for "I hit my flush". Mike Caro in his book of tells says to figure out what actors want you to do and do the opposite. I've been betting all the way, he wants me to bet again so he can raise me out of my shorts, so I check in hopes of hitting my 2-outer on the river.

River (~$1.85) brings the 9c, putting 4 on the board (and the Tc in my hand). SB takes about 2 seconds to push a hair over $3.

It took me a while to figure out what to do.

What would your thought process be and what would you do? What is he holding?

[adamh]

i calll..........im not sure hes pushing if he hits his flush...........i could be wrong

[ua1176]

[Spank_her_Pair]

Fold. You have a weak hand. You can really only beat a bluff and i dont think that is likely enough to justify a call. I suppose at this limit villian coudl have a lower flush or something stupid but I think you can pick a better spot.

[BigPhish]

Those of you who think he's probably not bluffing, what chance would you give that? Maybe 60/40 that he has the T-high flush beat? 80/20?

[Roy Batty]

[BigPhish]

[Roy Batty]

[k3nt]

I have been working on this one, too. I'm not good at it yet, though.

If their bet looks like it wants a call, I lean toward a fold. If their bet looks like it wants a fold, I lean toward a call. I don't get it right 100%, or even close, but I do pick off a bunch of bluffs.

In general, if I've shown weakness on the turn and then they bet pot or overbet the river, they probably have crap. Not all the time, but enough for a call to be +EV.

I have rarely seen anyone bluff like this on a 4-flush board though. So in this case I would probably fold.

Nice result on this hand. But I think over time your call is probably slightly -EV ... at least at any level higher than $4 NL.