Rivered a set.... shove river? (NL $100 6-Max)

[DoctorHandles]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $114.60
UTG+1: $109.55
Hero: $104.55
Button: $82.40
SB: $140.55
BB: $156.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with
UTG raises to $2, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises to $10, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: ($23.5, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $17, UTG calls.

Turn: ($57.5, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($57.5, 2 players)
UTG bets $17, Hero?


Ok, so if I shove the relevent hands are QQ, AA, AQ, and maybe 99. KK isn't calling a shove and the flop bet eliminates AK (AKs will usually CRAI flop).

There's more combinations of AQ and 99, but the min raise preflop and cold call OOP is more in line with AA or QQ. Is it +EV to shove here?

No real reads on opp, played with him for a little bit and he's done noithing noticable (I'm 5x tabling and poker hub doesn't work on this site).

[ua1176]

you're overthinking this.

someone who minraises UTG and plays like this postflop probably doesnt realize that AKs should CR AI on this flop. hell...competent players dont minraise UTG. its more likely that he's a moron and you just haven't noticed because you're 5-tabling. i think you have to assign a certain probability to Q-x, A-x, JT, and any random two cards.

people who flat-call 3-bets with AA PF are generally not the ones minraising UTG.

my thought process would be as follows:

1. his play throughout the hand makes it at least somewhat probable that he's an idiot.

2. idiots usually like to call with 2nd-best hands.

3. i just rivered a set. therefore i push.

[kennyg]