contemplating a really thin river call ($100NL 6-max)

[ua1176]

$100NL 6-max @ Tribeca.

UTG limps. i raise to $5 OTB with [9h]. only UTG limper calls. he's relatively solid and a multitabler. not especially outstanding. not aggro enough to be difficult. but a relatively normal range of starting hands (although not playing position very well).

flop: [5c][2c]
pot: $11

checks, i bet $9, he calls.

turn:
pot: $29

check/check.

river:

he insta, and i mean INSTA, bets $25. i really really really want to call. can i?

also- bonus question- anyone fire the turn?

thanks,

jon

[Dumb Snowman]

Instabet is supposed to mean bluff online? If so then I guess I call.

And I might fire 20 on the turn if I'm kinda bored.

[T-Rod]

[Stoneburg]

Call. His most likely hand is a busted draw. He's either got nothing or a monster here and I think he has nothing often enough to make it a call. You showed weakness by checking the turn, he's showing "strength" by instapotting the river, adds up to a bluff. If he had a boat or quads I'd expect him to make a smaller valuebet, if he has a Q I'd expect him to think before betting and make it a block bet, not full pot like this.

I think it is +EV by a wide margin to call here.

[NorthView]

Call. This is standard river play at Tribeca, so if he's a standard Tribeca player then it's very often a missed draw after you've induced.

[Yenool]

I play lower levels, but I tend to call this type of bet. Against a tight player I might well bet the turn, depends what my image is like as well.

I think you can win this pot often enough to call, I would be suprised to see a Q or a set unless you have the image of a total maniac and he was planning to check raise you on the turn.

I also dont think he would bet the river like this with a monster unless you have been paying off large river bets with weak hands recently.

anyone?

[ua1176]

[Kc] is not in his range. i would think he'd raise it almost 100% of the time PF. same for AQ/KQ.

his most likely hands for limp/calling UTG are SC's, low/mid PP's, and A-x suited. so i think im very much looking at 55/22........or nothing. small chance of other stuff.

jon

[Tatarana]

His flop call is strange. I cant put him on many drawing hands here, specially after reading your second post. I would fold and wait for another spot.

BTW, Do you think that checking behind this flop, ~50% time, is a bad play ?

Edit : I would need some outs to make a second barrel here. So, as played, I check this turn.