Getting good odds to draw OOP on the turn..

[Confundus]

This is one specific problem I just can't figure out a good solution to. If I flop a four flush OOP a 1/2 pot bet seems good. You have fold equity and it also works as an effective blocking bet against all the but the most paranoid protectors. Most made hands will just call and see where things stand on the turn. The pot odds aren't quite right but the implied odds + fold equity + hand disguise + two streets to bet on make 1/2 pot on the flop fine.

But if you don't hit the turn, seeing the river for good odds has really become a conundrum for me. 1/2 pot is just too much to pay unless you are really deep stacked and your opponent is married to his hand. To break even paying 1/2 pot you must get your opponent to call 2/3 the pot on the river. With only one chance to bet and the river being a scare card, that's just not realistic.

If you check, your opponent will almost always bet atleast 1/2 the pot if he has any kind of hand at all. If he doesn't have a hand worth raise/protecting, you don't have any implied odds anyway. If you make a smaller bet that can give you good odds it screams draw and will almost always be reraised. I don't know how to handle this.

Btw, this is the standard 8 out OSSD and 9 out four flush, things would be different if you had good overcards or a pair+draw.

Ideas?

[ua1176]

i cant speak for everyone here. but if you start regularly betting 1/2 pot on the flop, im going to start regularly raising.

if i lead the flop w/ a draw, and get called, and the turn bricks....

i usually check/call a reasonable bet (less than pot)
i sometimes (30% maybe) check/fold
i rarely (10%?) check-raise all in.

i also think that a lot of the reason you face so many turn bets after checking is BECAUSE you only bet 1/2 pot on the flop.

[Confundus]

Ignore 'regularity', small stakes no limit against fairly unobservant players that are always shifting in and out. No long term play time with any player. Nobody at these stakes is going to see this play more than once or twice, so ignore that.

Check/call on the turn announces draw (or maybe maybe a bluff c-bet on the flop).

And there is no way, NO WAY you can call anywhere near the pot on the turn. You're going to lose what you put into the pot here 4 times out of 5. No way you make all that back that 5th time if you were putting in more than 1/2 the pot. This is the whole problem i'm talking about.

If the pot on the turn is 20 dollars. You check and your opponent bets 15 and you call.
You will lose 15 four times, 15+15+15+15 = 60. The one time you hit you will win the 20 in the pot before the turn plus the 15 he put in on the turn, that's 35. You need to get an additional 25 dollars just to break even. The pot on the river will be 50 dollars and you've got to get him to call a 25 dollar bet when a scare card (your draw) hits. That's just to break even and it's not even realistic.

[ua1176]

first- *I* play small-stakes NL. $100NL....just starting to mess around with $200NL. i think at $50NL and higher, you will start finding some (not many, but some) observant players who will remember what has transpired in the past. and if you're talking about REALLY low stakes like 5c/10c....then screw it cause those players will pay you on the river even if you flip up 2 jokers beforehand.

second.... i can check-call on the turn because:

1. if your opponent bets 1/2 pot on the turn you need him to pay 1/4 pot on the river. that shouldnt be hard to extract. if he bets 3/4 pot on the turn you need him to pay 1/2 pot on the river. also not terribly hard to extract.

2. i check-call the turn with top pair or overpairs sometimes. if you dont check-call ever with top pairs/overpairs, then thats a problem with your game, not with mine. so it actually doesnt announce my hand as a draw.

3. i check-raise the turn with strong overpairs, sets, some other hands (and some draws), or bluffs sometimes. so my opponents are aware that they can't just bet the turn with impunity. if you never check-raise the turn.....then of course your opponents will bet.

finally.....if you're betting 1/2 pot with draws and not 1/2 pot with anything else...then i think you have a big big problem with your flop play. if you're betting 1/2 pot with everything then i think you're missing value + giving good odds with every non-draw hand.

[schlep]