Question about combo draws

[schlep]

Do any of you consider folding an overpair to a combo draw when you know for sure thats what they have I know the math is a little bit out of our favor. I know I have plenty of equity in this pot but I know exactly what villian has since he has 0 FE against UTG( fishy and weak whom I don't think he bets out with two pair or better) but villian(button) has been raising every pot since he joined the table there is no possible way does he play a set this passively. so i put him squarely on QhJh or Jh9h there is no way he can put me on a made hand since he hasnt been at the table long enough and I haven't three bet him once, part of my plan since I have position on him. this happened out of the SB unfortunately disregard the pre-flop play I very very rarely do this especially against a superaggressive but situationals arrise. but is a 55/45 dog enough to fold out the best hand on the flop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) from (Format: Bet The Pot)

UTG ($89.60)
MP ($129.10)
CO ($107.65)
Button ($108.65)
Hero ($164.95)
BB ($98.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Button raises to $5, Hero calls $4.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($16) , , (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $4, Button calls $4, Hero raises to $20, UTG calls $16, Button raises to $103.65, Hero raises to $159.95, UTG calls $64.60 (All-In).

Turn: ($364.20) (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($364.20) (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $364.20

Results in white below:
Hero has Ad Ah (one pair, aces).
UTG has Qc Ks (one pair, kings).
Button has Qh Jh (flush, king high).
Outcome: Button wins $364.20.

[Dumb Snowman]

You played it fine. Even though you're behind (and the Ace of hearts might actually make it a bit closer to even money) a little bit, there's enough in the pot to make it correct. Add in the other guy and you're way +ev to do this.

Just think of it like this... If there's 20 bucks in the pot, someone pushes for 100 and flips up QQ, are you going to even think about folding AK?

[k3nt]

This is just a math question....

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2287197
pokenum -h ah ad - ks qc - qh jh -- kh th 8s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 8s Kh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 378 41.86 525 58.14 0 0.00 0.419
Ks Qc 96 10.63 792 87.71 15 1.66 0.115
Qh Jh 414 45.85 474 52.49 15 1.66 0.467

You have 41.9 percent equity in the main pot, which is ($89.60 * 3) = $268.80
41.9% of $268.80 is $112.62.

The side pot between you and the button is another $40 or so, so your equity in that is probably another 18 bucks or so (45%). So your total equity is say $130. After your raise to $20 (you're not thinking about folding instead of raising to $20, are you??), you only have to put in another $83 to claim that equity in the pot. So your overall equity is $47 more than what you have to put in to claim it.

So ... if you fold this, you just burned about $47!

Of course, you got lucky that UTG called. If UTG had folded, it would have been a lot closer to break-even. But I'm sure it's still +EV. If you assume UTG will call half the time, it's definitely a big +EV play.

(EDIT: I miscalculated the first time. Fixed it.)

[black_knight6]

[k3nt]

[black_knight6]

[black_knight6]

[schlep]

This is exactly why I called I had pot odds to call because I knew UTG would call he was too fishy to fold TP and the button was smart enough to wait to make his hand to get value too excellent pot odds but 0 equity with the worst hand on the flop but the best draw So i had a good feeling I was ahead. button had QhJh anyways heads up could be trickier though he was cb'ing every pot what if I knew UTG would fold? i.e. he was WT and not a total fish

[ua1176]

by the time you have enough info to potentially fold...the pot odds make it +EV to call.

against good players who take the same line with sets and combo draws (bet-3bet), then you have to consider laying down overpairs because the sets crush you so bad.

also....because of the above...i actually like flat-calling a flop bet with AA in this situation. and pounding on a good turn card. however...you cant do that here.....because the guy betting into you is betting $4 into a $16 pot. you have to raise that.

jon