ATE, help me out with the bubble in MTT's!

[Freshwater]

I was in a 20 +2 tournament last night. there were about 29 people left in the tournament. (Top ten paid)

I had about 11K more than any other stack at 40K(pretty substantial at the time)

I'm in middle position and look down to find AK suited.

someone in early postion bumps it up to 2400 to go(blinds were 400/800. he was the second largest stack at the table and had 29K or so. a short stack of only about 3000 goes all in.....

now is where I'd like some analysis...

I ended up just calling, and the 29K stack thought about it for a while and ended up just calling...
the flop comes J94....I missed

the 29K stack bets 800....I figure the odds are there to call since its 9000 in the pot. so I call
the turn is an A....

He bets 3000 this time. without thinking I call
river is a blank
he bets 9K or so...
I call
he shows the set. 999

I lose half my stack almost
and end up bubbling out.

I see this hand as my crucial error and had I acted differently I should have made that final table

So what should I have done here?

Fold- I keep thinking about this and can't decide if its the right move or not. I have a huge stack, so why risk chips....but then again. its a short stack moving all in and I had AK suited....

Go All In- This is what I think I should have done. the player with 29K seemed pretty solid and fairly tight aggresive. It would have been very difficult to call 2 all in's with 99. I think the reason I didnt was something I remembered from Syndrome's post(Although I'm sure he would have played this differntly as he's much better than me) about avoiding a race situation where ever possible, had I gone all in and he called me I would have been down to about 11K and pretty much out of the tournament, but that would be a large raise and a large risk considering he was 2nd in chips in the whole tournament. I def. think this is what I should have done in retrospect

Just Calling- My thought here was I can see the flop, and if an A or K miss thats ok I'll just check/fold. well that minimum bet sucked me in and I hit an A to lose the pot.....


I really really want some analysis here, and maybe some pointers on how to play in the "bubble" stages of the tournament. I can tell I'm getting better in my tourney game because instead of losing in the first hour I'm busting out on the bubble I'd just like some advice, because I plan ot play in this tournament again very soon. I'm driven to win a tournament and this one could have been in had it not been for that one mistake.....

I thank you in advance for any feedback
Freshwater

[tetsuo]

[Admin note: moved to MTT section, as I'm locking the ATE section in preparation for closure.]

[AdamtheExpert]

Ok, well I'm glad this has been moved here, so I can answer the last question.
I have not been writing much, as my knew-I-had-it-but-just-diagnosed-yesterday-diabetes, has left me unable to do much.

But, with my medication, I'm feeling a lot better. Now, after being hit with that diagnosis, I'm today hit with the closing of MY section.


Anyway, Freshwater please understand that I like you, but like a beloved child gone astray, sometimes a HARSH correcting is in order.

Well, let's go with KINDA stern: You messed up here!


B ut, I'm not entirely blaming you. Popular fokelore, assignes MUCH MUCH more value, to ace king, suited or otherwise-than the hand actually merrits


The FIRST lesson you must learn, in tournametn poker, is the fact that there is nothing powerful, or very special, about ace king.

Yes, it's usually playable, but it is NOT not, a thousand times NOT a hand to get involved with, when you have a big stack, and you are NOT the aggressor.

In actuality, the best and real use of ace king, is really just a big fat SEMI BLUFF! yeah, some armchair experts will not see the truth in this, and I won't even waste my time arguing with them.

YUP! tha's exactly what you got: a semi bluff!! when you raise or reraise with AK, you are attempting to represent a big pair, with the following two factors in your favor:


(1) By posessing both an ace and a king, the chances of anyone holding AA or KK have gone down


NOTICE NOTICE NOTICE NOTICE NOTICE

uh . . . . .. .but they AIN'T been elimatnated. I had to mention this, because from the way I see people play this hand, they seem to think that it is now IMPOSSIBLE for anyone to actually have "the real deal" just because they hold ONE ace, and ONE king!!

(2) in the event you are called, you may still flop a big pair, and if so will usually then have the best hand.



Becaue of the fact that AK's main strength is as a semi bluff, it is important to NOT be the caller, but rather the aggressor. If you smooth call someone, there goes your chance to win the pot outright, and thus win with the semi bluff.

Well, my friend, there's just went MOST of your power. Now, you gotta hit something, or hope that your opponent did not.

This is like loading a 30 shot M16 magizine, with only 10 shots: you are giving up your firepower.


Ok, that's enough about AK in general, now we'll look at it, in the specific situation you described.


First thing to understand: non pairs, are an EARLY stage tournament hand. This is important to know. When the money is still light years away (or at least in the minds of the gamble up, I'm never gonna win anyway-type players) the value of something like Ace king, goes WAY up.

This is because you can expect ACTIO"N, when you hit the flop.

If the flop comes: A 2 8, you can expect lower kickers, middle pairs, etc. to give action.

But, on the "bubble" (God, how I hate using other people's terms) The willingness to call without a big hand, goes way WAY down.

Very important! The object is not to win the hand, but to win MONEY on the hand!


So, in the final stages of the tournemnt, if you have a nice flop for your ace king, such as:

A 2 7, It is not realitic to expect that you will get any more action

Unless of course you run into a hand that beats you, or at BEST ties you.


This is why pairs, and pretty much ONLY pairs, are what you are looking for at the final stages.

Pairs make sets, and sets are nice and stealthy!!


So, let's say the original opener had QQ. now, if you hit your hand, he (she) is NOT going to call, unless they have a set.

But, had you had something like 77, and make a set, you'll likely bust out the QQ hand.



with your stack at 50x bb, you COULD do a little gambling, but it should have been with a different type of hand.

even something like 87s, would lhave been better in this spot, because of the fact that

(1) it's probably won't be domintated

(2) You may get good action, from someone not expecting that anyone would call with "TH"OSE" kind of cards.


Now, don't get me wrong, calling 2500 out of a 40K stack, with AK SUITED, was not "bad".

But only if you are prepared to stay in after the flop, only with a GREAT flop.

There just was no need to gamble here. You must RECONDITI"ON your thinking, away from thinking just about the hand you have. You must think about the situation.

yeah, yeah, suited aces kings look very nice. But if you look at the complete picture, you will see that things really don't look very good.


(1) someone else showed strength, in a spot where the majority of the players would NOT come in, without something that was not BETTER than AK, or tied it.

(2) You had players behind you, and they may come over the top.

(3) you have a type of hand, that when it hits, the only action you can get, is from a better hand! No stealth value

(4) You have a giant stack, and there was no need to get involved.



Ok now, again I don't want to pick, BUT WHAT WERE YOU THINKING! calling the flop!

Pot odds, meanth NOTHING here, because of the high likely hood, that if you hit, the card would improve the bettor to two pair, or that they had something REALLY big, better than anything you could make.


Remember, Fresh at this point the only words going on inside the minds of your opponets are


I DON'T WANNA BE BUBBLE BOY I DON'T WANNA BE BUBBLE BOY

So, for someone to bet out into the preflop raisor, and a caller, probably meant that you were looking a a BIG hand, or one that would make two pair if you hit your ace, or maybe your king.

Possible hands include AJ, JJ slowplay of KK or AA or of course the 99 that you ran into.

and, let's not forget that almost 7-1, against even hitting A or K on turn.




So, ATE would have either folded the AKs, or reraised to about 7500, depending on what notes and/or observations I had about the original raiser.


But, having just called, there is no way I would have gotten involved after the flop.



Get into the money first, then worry about building up more chips.



Hope this helped,

Adam