Backdoor flush $200NL SH

[iceman5]

$1/$2 NL at Tribeca

Button opens to $6. I call in the BB with [Tc].

Reads....the last 2 rounds, he has raised to $6 on the button. 1 time I called and led the flop and he folded. 1 time I reraised preflop and he folded.

Pot $13. Flop [5h][2d]. I lead $11 and he calls.
Pot $34. Turn . I check, he bets $20, I call.
Pot $74. River . He has $100ish left and I cover. Whats my play?

[Twelver]

[iceman5]

Are you sure? What do you think he puts me on after I lead the flop and check/call the turn? KT?

[Twelver]

Honestly when you just check call the turn I would put you on something exactly like KT/KJ/KQ.

What do you think his range is after calling your flop lead (according to prior hands he hasn't been doing any floating)

[AlexMR]

[Twelver]

[Kuso]

[muszu]

[AlexMR]

[iceman5]

[Twelver]

[Devbert]

[iceman5]

Since he has a set, yeah, it probably didnt matter. But against KQ, I think I win more with the CR.

Most people arent checking behind in that spot.
They might or might not fold if I lead out big, and they might or might not fold to the CR.

So lets say I check and he has KQ

1) Maybe 20% of the time he checks behind
2) 80% of the time he bets $40 or so
3) Of the 80% he bets $40, he might fold to the CRAI 50%

I get nothing extra 20% of the time
I get $40 extra 40% of the time
I get $100 extra 40% of the time

Thats $56 in EV

If I lead $50 I think he calls 80%
Folds 20%

Thats $40 in EV.

Of course these are all estimates. The CRAI also helps in later hands when people shy away from value betting the river against me.

[Aisthesis]

[Dumb Snowman]