tough call i make ($100NL 6-max)

[ua1176]

$100NL 6-max @ Tribeca

i raise [Th] UTG+1. CO calls. he has $80 and i cover. never seen him before, he seems loose/aggressive/floaty.

flop: [3s][5s]
pot: $9

i bet $8, he calls.

turn:
pot: $25

i bet $19, he calls.

river:
pot: $63

i check, he quickly bets $48. i click on his profile, see that he's from Linkoping, and i call.

thoughts?

jon

[DoctorHandles]

[muszu]

[NorthView]

[k3nt]

[Stoneburg]

[Dumb Snowman]

Like kent said, instabet + draw hit = bluff.

If he hit the draw, he's deciding how much he can milk you for, if he had a big hand before the draw hit he's deciding whether you checked with the flush or not.

[ua1176]

i played against a bunch of Scandinavian LAG-types when i was playing at Prima. and i lost a lot of money folding to their river bets.

i think the odds of him playing a flush draw this way are close to 0. i would expect a flop raise almost every time, or maybe a turn shove if he had an OESD to go with it/paired the Ten.

also....as far as straight draws...the OESD + the double gutshot (76 and 64) both missed. 42 made a straight but i think this opponent gets more credit for preflop hand selection than 42.

finally- in regards to K3nt's comment on bet sizing....i misspoke in my original post. that $48 was all he had left. he'd started the hand with $80, so his $48 river bet was all-in.

muszu- i don't call against an Irishman without more history (my experience with irish players @ Tribeca is that they'll frequently have the flush), and probably not against a Londoner. but there is a very specific type of Scandinavian LAG play and absent any other information.....i think there's a large chance he's trying to buy the pot.

jon

[muszu]

so was it a good call after all, did he bluff?

[ua1176]

yeah. [2d]. ship it my way.

[poker2006]