Sorry ua1176...THIS is the real hand from hell

[Xaston]

[AlexMR]

[Allstar7]

[iceman5]

If I was in the blind, I would lead out with the full house every time. Im just saying i dont raise it every time.


I screwed up the flop. It was really [Ks][5c]

[Triple B]

[black_knight6]

[black_knight6]

[Electrolux]

I think I like the play. When there are very small chances that you will be outdrawn and need to fold, and opponent will continue betting if you just call, but fold if you bet and raise, I like being a calling station. And according to Ice's description, that seems to be the case here.

The chance that an out that will kill our action and we need to fold is 2.5% if he has a K and 5% if he doesnt have one, i.e. if a third K hits). In those cases we loose the pot of 20. So the joint EV of that to the turn should be negative of no more than 1.

If opponent really has a Kx, and no K turns or rivers, we will surely go all in. He will hit his 3 outer 12.5% of the time, and we will win the rest of the hands, and that surely is large positive EV. But that is besides the point, I think.

The comparison should be if opponent has anything else, say AJ. If we then bet or raise flop. He will most certainly close down and we win the pot of 20 100% of the time. But if we just call, he will also fire a second and maybe a third bullet on the turn and river. And for the play to have postive EV, he need to bet more than 1 (!!!) in those 95% when a K doesn't hit.

So I think calling, and letting him bet is the right path. You just happened to hit the 2.5 or 5% of turns when a K hits

[Allstar7]

[Dumb Snowman]