Shifting back down--particularly for Zarathustra

[Aisthesis]

Z (and of course anyone else who cares to respond), I have a question about shifting back down into tight mode after opening up somewhat when the antes begin.

Basically, what are you really doing here?

As preface, perhaps a rather classic scenario for me: I've grown a little early but haven't kept pace with the blinds really or even with average stack (that's fairly usual--sometimes I hit something nice and am in really good shape, sometimes I'm in worse shape when the cards just fall horribly, but even in the latter case, I've ended up with some decent finishes). Ok, so, I loosen up a bit and start stealing.

Now, either I'll go out, or fairly typically, I'll work myself into an above average stack, but not really huge. This for me means a fair degree of tightness, but the blinds are now pretty big relative to stack size. I'm assuming you're with me here in terms of opportunistic steals (varying depending on table texture). I just don't see how one can keep pace with the blinds without stealing as the opportunity arises.

Now, by contrast, I make a point of NEVER stealing really early. I guess I probably would if the table were just squeaky, but the more common mistake is over-aggression in the early phases, at least in my experience. So, I just sit back and watch for the most part--of course playing hands with potential, but pretty cautiously unless I end up with something pretty substantial (like no betting the flop on unimproved AK, no semi-bluffing of draws under normal circumstances).

Finally, a sample hand, which I posted on UPF along with a few others. Can't remember exactly how many players were left at this point. I think it was about half the field (of originally 1200), and I have an actual big stack at around 5,200. Blinds at 75/150. Ok, in theory, this is actually not the time to be really opening up--no antes yet, but I do have a big stack, although by no means overwhelming.

Player to my immediate left is over-aggressive and has gone from a big stack down to 1,200 (average stack in the tourney now is 3,000). After folds to me, I raise AQo in SB to 400. BB moves in for 1,200. I call, and he turns over 77. Well, if I were playing full-on cautious, I guess I'd just have to fold there, but I was rather expecting a coinflip on this one, possibly also a strong-ish A (I think he would have gone for it with A9 or better, probably).

So, I call, figuring the coinflip isn't too bad for me, although (again in the spirit of my "bubble" post) losing definitely hurts me more than winning would help me. I also kind of wanted to get rid of this guy, I'll have to admit, because he got aggravating at times.

Anyhow, really early in the tourney, I don't have a problem folding AQ to a re-raise. At this stage, it seems like an awfully strong hand to be laying down to a re-raise from a pretty aggressive player in a vulnerable small stack. It's also an example of my own "bullying" big stack strategy, which may still be a little over-aggressive or overly sheriffy. Should I have laid this thing down here? (I lost, of course, or probably wouldn't remember it quite so well)

[Zarathustra]

Good post, A, I'll give my long rambling opinions on your points.

First, I totally agree that very tight early is the way to go, and steals early are just stupid for a number of reasons (your reads aren't as good yet, too many knucklehead callers when blinds are low, and risk vs. reward doesn't justify it).

And opening up mid-way or so is right. I don't want to be the guy nursing a small stack all tourney trying to get 150th place. Here, your reads are sharper and like you said, you can start making opportunistic steals.

Now as for shifting back down, I think once you get later and blinds go up, there are a lot of people (often myself if I dont have a big stack) getting close to all-or-nothing mode. If I have a big stack, I sometimes stay on the attack and put people to decisions, but you have to have the discipline to fold if a tight player pushes. An example: Say blinds are 500/1000 and I have 22k and in MP or LP. If there are a fair number of short stacks to act (say < 8k) and the bigger stacks if any are playing tight, then I start opening for 3k with hands like KQ, KJ, maybe even worse (QJ, A9, etc.). I'm still risking a bit but not nearly as much as a shorter stack is risking to play with me. If a VP$IP 10%-er moves all-in, its an easy fold if he has a fair number of chips. More often, I take the blinds as any of the good players with PT know I am not playing too loosely and they'll need a hand. Of course, if I have the short stack or avg stack, then I'm much more selective, but with an avg stack I'll take opportunistic shots -- but I never take a steal shot with a hand that doesn't have a chance if called. So, stealing with 95o is never an option for me, but stealing with QTo certainly may be. Now, it may be the case where you know one of the small or avg stacks is going to play -- seems every hand somebody is gearing to push. In this scenario, I won't try any semi-steals from MP/LP with hands like QJ etc if theres a very good chance I'm getting action. So, table texture plays an important role. So, I don't shift down to rock/mouse style, I still am playing poker, but its more selective. I guess my strategy can be summed up as never outright bluff, but vary the strength of your steal semibluffs to the probability you'll get called. I don't want to play big pots with a decent stack and marginal cards -- I want little pots to accumulate or play a big pot with a big hand.

As for your AQ vs 77 question in the blinds, I make that call every time. AQ is very likely either best or coinflip, and even though losing 1000 chips hurts there, it doesn't cripple you. And adding 2500 or so is easily worth the risk. It isn't the same senario as say you opened in EP and a MP avg stack moved all-in -- that is likely an easy fold. But a short-stack all-in from BB against a SB steal is an easy call.

Sorry if my post is rambling -- hard to capture exactly how I'd play in a paragraph or two -- as with everything, it depends.

By the way, I'm thinking of really getting into MTTs and this advice may change. I had a great run this weekend playing one each on Fri/Sat/Sun. Luckily, in each tourney I got some cards either early or mid-way and never had too short of a stack until the end.
Fri $30+3 2nd of 590 $2655
Sat $20+2 29th of 1650 $188
Sun $30+3 68th of 1366 $95

It's amazing how much you learn in every tourney you play -- I went out in Sunday's with AQ from UTG aginst a reraise from MP. I had below avg stack and said I knew this guy had AA, KK, or AK, possibly QQ/JJ -- his stack wasn't much more than mine and I knew he respected my raises before. At best I was coinflip and most likely big dog. Everything told me to fold, even though I was getting almost 3:1 if I pushed. I pushed telling myself I need to play to win and if I folded I'd only have enough for the blinds and then would blind out next orbit. He had KK of course (better than AA at least) and I was out. I think I should have folded as crazy as that may sound to some. I would be better off surviving to play an orbit, you never know what you might find.

Here's one other thing I do that may have some or no value -- I talk like a fiend from the time I sit down. Good players won't put too much into it. Bad players seem to give me no respect early. Early on, I don't want respect -- I want a caller or two as the only hands I'm going to be playing are big hands. Once I move tables mid-way or so, I don't chat like that too much. But usually when I sit down before we even start I've already asked a couple people about their name, made a few fibs about having to hurry up and go to work, etc. I went on and on last night from the BB facing an all-in raise about half way through (still at original table though). I went into time bank and was saying "Do you want a call, I have KT" "Man, I can't believe I'm going to fold two paint." "I think you are bluffing but I'm afriad you might have AK and be domiating KT" etc. Finally I folded and he had JJ. I went with "Damn - I knew I should have called if it was a coinflip!" I was corrected that JJ is not a coinflip with KT because KT only has 1 overcard. I re-corrected that with "Yeah, but KT makes more straights and possible flush so its still about a coinflip" About the next orbit, I pick up JJ and go into my "should I call, etc., I have 2 paint" facing a raise. I finally call. Flop comes KJx. He moves allin with AK and I take him out with a set of jacks and move up to near chip lead of tourney. The beauty of that hand is he probably would have pushed all-in on a rags flop, too thinking AK was best against two other paint cards, in which case my overpair woulda taken him out. Good times

[Aisthesis]

Hey, thank! Actually your post helped me to calm down quite a bit and pull a 13th out of something like a 650 field (think it was a $10 tourney).

I think where it gets tricky is when you have trouble extricating yourself at midway from this "eternal short-stack" situation. If you can once get into a healthy stack where you can actually play rather than wait around for the proper all-in hand, then things go a lot more smoothly.

On the 13th, I could actually kick myself, as I think I was getting a little too nervous too early. Admittedly, toward the end, the blinds were growing faster than most people's stacks, so it might not have been completely avoidable, but I'm not completely sure whether I should have laid back just a little longer--or I guess, more accurately, picked my spots with a hair more tightness. The 13th was soooo close to the serious money. Payoff even there wasn't too bad, but those 1st's and 2nd's are really what one is looking for--they pay for a lot of buy-ins....