Top set Kings 1/2 NL SH

[kennyg]

Opponent is fairly TAG at 18/6 with a 2.17 agg factor.

My question would be on the flat turn call as I think the river plays itself. What do you think?

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
4 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $304.37
Hero: $251.57
SB: $275.17
BB: $427.55

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with
UTG calls, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: ($19, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $14, UTG calls.

Turn: ($47, 2 players)
UTG bets $36.14, Hero calls.

River: ($119.28, 2 players)
UTG bets $63.05, Hero raises all-in $193.43

[ua1176]

[Rhound50]

[ua1176]

[Rhound50]

I am not saying that that is a 100% thing but kenny having a flush draw is one of the things that would be going through my head when he smooth calls the turn. Two big clubs like would be played this way, most people dont just call here with AK which either means to me flush draw or monster. The lead out the turn is usually a strong hand and I thinks its pretty unlikely that villian is going to fold to a raise here. If the club comes off villian is very likely to check and there is not enough in the pot to force an all in call. I see very little loss of equity raising the turn and a potential loss of equity by not raising. I dont think villian betting the river at all shows that he thinks kenny was on a busted flush draw, if he has a set he is going to bet to get paid off either way hoping that maybe he was wrong or kenny could as I said had and might call.

[Xaston]

[ua1176]

Xaston,

i also think villain will sometimes show up with KQ/KJ. in a vacuum, i will assume that the average 18/6 player at $1/2 NL doesn't play position very well, and will be roughly 18/6 from all positions.

my theory is that the value gained against one pair by playing KK this way is greater than the value lost when villain finds a fold on a river with a set. i think this type of villain lays down KQ/KJ to a turn raise almost 100% of the time.

im a little too tired right now to actually do any EV calculations, but i want to clarify that my thought process did include thinking about villain folding on a flush river. i did some quick estmates about weighted ranges and assumed that villain would fold KQ/KJ to a turn raise 80-90% of the time and would fold a set on a river infrequently but sometimes.

[Rhound50]

[Xaston]

[kennyg]

Well I'm glad it could generate some discussion. I'm surprised none of you put him on a draw. I didn't either.


RESULTS
When I pushed over top on the river I thought.. please please please don't have [Tc]. He did.. and he stacked me with his gutshot straight.

[NorthView]

Part of the problem here is with a common misinterpretation of PT stats. It's not good to put too much weight on the assumption that an 18/6 isn't calling PFR's with lots of pairs and SCs OOP.

There's no direct correlation between either PFR% or VPIP% and Call Preflop Raise %, so I have this useful stat displayed.

[ua1176]

Kenny-

i was actually gonna put a line in there saying how it sucks when villain turns out to be a good player with [Tc], but how you just have to take your lumps. so no worries. you played it fine.

[Rhound50]

[black_knight6]

[Chance Artanis]

how come your playing these pinner stakes? I am also playing 1/2 again. imo it's a bonanza compared to 2/4 or 3/6 on FTP