OK, Back to the drawing Board!

[TexasKowboy]

It's been over 2 months since I have made any real money playing a MTT. I am not sure if I have changed or The other player have caught up or changed.

I must be playing too tight because I am ending up short stacked. I go all in with a good hand only to get out drawn or run into a small PP that hold up. If I go in with pocket 10's someone always catches an ace. But when I push AQ or AJs I don't improve and lose to pocket 4's.

I have noticed early and late that players are playing any 2 suited and any 2 connected. Any Ace and Any K from any position. I also am seeing a lot of bluffing and a lot of betting (semi-bluffing) with middle pair. But you never know when you miss the flop with your A10 because they are playing any 2 cards.

Any advise?

[MVPSPORTS]

Are you still playing your "push PF w/ AA, KK, or AK" thing? If so, maybe that's what's lowering your stack a little, cause no one's calling your monsters...

I think you should LOVE the players playing any 2 suited or connectors, cause while they'll hit occasionally, they're gonna lose to your overpairs most of the time...

[TexasKowboy]

I am just not getting any cards it doesn't seem like. Plus when I do I am either not hitting or get to aggressive with TPTK.

I AJo from LP with a raise say 3X the BB. An early limper calls and the BB calls. What happens is the flop is 28J. It is checked to me I bet the pot. BB folds EP calls. The turn is blank checked to me I bet half the pot EP calls. The river is blank EP checks I check I show TPTK EP shows 2 pair J's and 8's.

It could have been 68K and I played KQ and the EP player played 68s. This is happening over and over.

When are ya'll pushing and when are ya'll limping? Is it all one big trap game now? One big bluff?

If your short stacked and lucky suck out boy is bluffing at a pot you missed if you call your even shorter stacked because he is going to double the bet on the turn.

This is $20 and $30 MTT's It's driving me crazy. I played a $5 SnG waiting for a MTT to start last night and the play there was far better then the $20 level. What is going on?

Everything is a crap shot now. Good play is not paying off like it did.

[Aisthesis]

Tex, I am really convinced that MTTs are just going to have very high swings, because you're playing essentially for a long-shot even if you're a very good player. So, definitely don't despair.

I've been looking at a lot of statistics on the winning players I have in my database. As soon as I'm done, I'll post that, as well as several open questions I have regarding early play. I suspect that I have often been playing for a little too much consistency early, but I'd really like to establish some good guidelines regarding how much risk one should really be taking in all kinds of tourney situations.

If it's any consolation, I just finished going through my tournaments from last year, where I was better than 90% at making it to the halfway point (half the players gone), but had a negative ROI--kept getting booted shortly before the money and almost never even close to final table...

This year, since getting back in the game, I'm beating 100% in terms of ROI (now, but still not enough tourneys to really be statistically solid). So, anyhow, all I can really say for the moment is hang in there, don't make boneheaded plays, and be careful not to overextend your bankroll, as I did last year. It'll turn around, but sometimes it takes a while, particularly in MTTs, I think.

[Dumb Snowman]

Cowboy, I think I might know what your problem has become. You're used to gathering your chips when the blinds get somewhat high, and you do so by raising some marginal hands when in good position. This was a good strategy for a long time, but after all these fish watch Daniel Negranu play with hands like 69s to a raise, they're doing it. So although you are getting money in as a favorite, it's only about a 60/40 or so, therefore you will hit MAJOR downswings (as well as upswings) where you're losing or winning a lot of these hands, respectively.

My advice is to loosen up a little in the early stages. You're a good player; you can definately beat these guys after the flop! Try to gather a good deal of chips early so you don't have to put in a lot of chips on these marginal situations later.

That's my oppinion anyhow.

[TexasKowboy]

Thanks Aisthesis and Floppy!

You both make some great points. Floppy you are right on. In the past I would wait around the first hour then push hard the second. I would have a good read and as the song goes no when the hold em and know when the fold em. Now I have no clue. It is almost like play Omaha where if your going to push hards you better have the nuts or close to them. I'll loosen up early and see more flops and see how it goes.

Airthesis I am looking forward to your charts. They are going to give us a direction I believe.

[Hofstra]

[Dumb Snowman]

[TexasKowboy]

[Dumb Snowman]

[TexasKowboy]

[Dumb Snowman]

That sounds about right. You're looking to bust people rather than take the small pots. Obviously, if you can pick up the small pot here or there, that's great too!

[TexasKowboy]

[Dumb Snowman]

[TexasKowboy]