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Missed bet? (1/2/5) - Live Poker Forums

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Missed bet? (1/2/5)

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Missed bet? (1/2/5)

Postby Aisthesis » Sat Jan 27, 2007 3:24 am

Same game as other hand, but the table has now gotten juicy after some loose/stationish players from the other table with big stacks came over to outs when they combined tables. The 2 targets were fairly obvious immediately. One was the type who'd keep most anything vaguely reasonable in LP, then also bet a lot if checked around. So, I was really thinking that EP might be more profitable than LP for me the way this game was looking. My plan was to do a fair amount of check-raising (option of check-calling as well) to this guy's LP bets. He'd lay down junk, but my take was also that he was the type who could never lay down a draw.

We're playing 6- or 7-handed here. Both of these guys have around $400, and I'm at about $350. 4 limpers, and I limp for $5 in SB with 65s.

The flop is also pretty sweet: 655 with club draw. I check here.

I like this check in a limped pot. First off, anyone with a hand that has potential to beat me (except 66, which is rare) is going to bet: namely overpairs to the board. While it may be a little paranoid, I think a CR in my shoes is strongly worth considering in that spot. True, they only have 2 outs. But, if it's a player who's not going to pay you any more at all unless you get outdrawn, then I think the CR is worth a shot.

I guess if one takes the alternative of betting out, you're probably looking just at pairs like 77 or 88 to call in an unraised pot in this game (and a lot of these guys like to raise even those). Or A6 might call or the rare 5. But I figured any of these hands would bet anyway. Surprizingly to me, it got checked around.

Turn is a 3rd club, namely Ac. Now I bet out $20 and get no less than 3 callers, including one of the targets.

River is a 4th club (9c). I seriously consider betting here but decide to go for the CR. With this action, though, I think someone has the nut club and will bet. Fortunately, it's the target, who worried me least for having a bigger boat. He makes it $25, 1 fold, then I make it $75, which actually isn't a very big bet given the size of the pot. What I'm trying to do here is give Kc the opportunity to raise and be absolutely certain that he calls.

And, sure enough, target makes it $150 now. Ok, here's where I'm not sure about whether I missed a bet. I think he has just Kc most of the time in this situation, and I think he'll call for remaining stack of around another $150 with that hand. But I also think he sometimes has 66 or A5. I didn't really have that sense here (and was correct, as he had Kc7s), though.

I'll have to say that I do think I missed a bet on the river here. The main thing is that I'm convinced that this guy calls with Kc. Otherwise, I have the worst possible boat on this board. I didn't have the feeling that he was full, but wasn't sufficiently confident in this read.

Opinions?

By the way, I'm planning on getting back into casino NLHE (not sure where to go with PLO, but I just can't seem to make consistent progress in that game) with my main focus being capitalizing on reads and tells. Also just as background on this hand. I can't really say WHY in this case I didn't feel like he was full, but I didn't...
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Postby kennyg » Sat Jan 27, 2007 3:33 am

"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
-Iceman

Proud contributing member of the Poker Player's Alliance.
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Postby Danhdan » Tue Jan 30, 2007 3:33 pm

"Million dollar play, ten cent finish."

"My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives."

"Laugh and the world stares at you; cry, and the world stares at you."
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