Big draw (1/2/5)

[Aisthesis]

Ok, this game had kind of a weird blind structure after they discontinued the 2/5 at the casino closest to my house. As kind of a glorified 1/2, they introduced this 1/2/5 thing where the blinds are still 1/2, but a limp costs $5. Max buy-in is $300, as it is on the 1/2. I've also typically avoided this game because, while there's often more money on the table, it also often attracts the better players, and I'm not generally convinced that it's objectively as profitable as the 1/2.

But, the seat I first got at the 1/2 had a bunch of short-stacks and I think one decent stack who would have had position on me, so I went with the option of the 1/2/5 even though the big stacks at the table seemed to be good players. And, indeed, this game just wasn't at all juicy. Everyone was playing mainly premium hands with occasional junk raises mixed in just for fun (largely from short-stacks, which makes it even worse for my taste). I stuck with it, though, and will post another hand when the table finally did get juicy. Here's one from the phase where the table imo really just wasn't profitable:

I limp with As3s in CO after about 4 other limpers. Flop comes JsTs8h. An older cowboy-type guy (very experienced player who likes big limit games and will play a little loose but is definitely a good player on the whole) bets $20 into the $25 pot. Younger guy to my right flat calls. I've also played once with this guy, who in the previous session had played very loose. In the current session, he was playing much more seriously.

Ok, I have the nut flush draw, and normally I raise here. But this time I didn't for several reasons. First, the cowboy guy definitely respects my bets a lot, but I think would also very seriously question whether I even play Q9 (a legitimate question in fact). Moreover, he knows that I know he's capable of playing Q9, and he's also capable of slamming me if he thinks I can't call. The best made hand he'd be likely to put me on here is maybe TT. The younger player, I think, probably also respects my bets but is likely to have some kind of hand he's not going to lay down (that's just my feeling). So, I think I have near 0% chance of folding them both, and I may get myself into a tough spot of picking up a re-raise for stack, and I'm getting sweet odds to call. Moreover, I have the feeling that in all probability, I'm not looking at spade draws from either of these guys, so I should have my full 9 outs.

So, I just call. Turn a blank. Older guy bets $50 into the pot of now $95. Younger guy calls, and so do I.

I'm posting this mainly because I think it's a situation where raising my draw would probably have been a mistake. Given both hands, I probably would've folded older guy with the raise and kept younger guy in, losing more on the hand and also giving me really bad odds (younger guy only had about $150 anyway) with uncertain implied odds unless he makes a straight AND I make a flush.

River is a non-spade 9. Older guy bets another $50. Younger guy raises. I fold. Older guy has QT, and younger guy has QJ, so they split the pot with their straight.

[kennyg]

Though you don't actually HAVE to be raising Q9. you could also have bottom set, perhaps JT.. or maybe even some type of combo draw thing.

A raise on the flop would have been tough calls for both hands. Not saying it's correct. We'll never really know.

[Aisthesis]

Yeah, I think the older guy definitely lays down here, as he just doesn't have enough hand, and he knows I have at the very least AJ (which is already a rather ballsy raise on this board). It is definitely a tough call for the kid, and I really don't know what he would have done.

One note on the possible effect: If I DO get 2 folds, then I win a pot of $65. Drawing passively and losing, I lose $70. That's a net difference of $135, which is really a lot of money in a glorified 1/2 game. Drawing and winning, I have near 0 implied odds. I think the kid probably puts in some token bet if I should get really lucky and exactly the 9s hits, but that's unusual. So, if I make the turn at nearly 4:1, I just win the same $65, and if I make the river at 4:1 or so again, then I win $165.

So, the raise isn't too bad. I also do agree with you that older guy is going to put me on a set (that I presumably wouldn't lay down to a push) or JT as most likely holdings here if I pop it to $80 or so on the flop--possibly also 97s, which is a hand I'd be inclined to play like that.

Very early in the game, I'd also made a kind of blowout raise with Ad3d when the flop came 2h4h5d. I got a hesitant call on the flop, then pushed the turn for $150 (his stack) to a check when it came non-diamond (which I might've bet a little more softly) big card. I just wasn't at all sure about this player and didn't want to deal with possible paired river uncertainty (where a paired 5 and a sudden push might well mean some kind of junky 5 or might mean a full). This hand didn't get shown, though, and the draw hand was only maybe 2 orbits later. I felt like it was a little early to repeat this move--particularly since I was uncertain about possible made straights here from both players. Given their actual hands, which are in pretty bad shape against even AJ, I think the raise did have some potential.

Against their actual hands, I think I'll have to agree with you that the semi-bluff is probably the better play. But I also think that both of their hands were rather on the low end of the hand range they might have on the flop when the action gets to me.

Not really knowing their actual hands, but only that older guy is kind of cagy, semi-loose, capable of making moves and has $320 or so, I have $380, younger guy has about $150 (I think, possibly as much as $200) and might make a bad call, would you go for the semi-bluff ($90 sound about right?) more often than passively drawing, Kenny? My only "feeling" here was that neither was on any kind of flush draw.

[black_knight6]