too soon?

[slaz13]

[Aisthesis]

[Dumb Snowman]

It looks like I'm always gonna disagree with Aisthesis in MTT's (No offense to aisthesis, we just have very different views as far as tourneys go) But I like that move a lot. I count 14 outs here (9 diamonds, 2 9's, and 3 10's) so you're gonna hit one about 48%. Plus the fact that he might fold and this makes it a good play IMO.

Now about play 9Ts... again I disagree with aisthesis. This is exactly the type of hand you wanna be playing, especially with two limpers. You can't sit around and wait for a premium hand to move in on. Let's assume you get a premium hand every 2.5 rounds. Well, half of the time you're gonna pick up the blinds, or a real short stack will call you. And the other half of the time you get in with about a 75% chance to double up. I suck at odds but that doesn't really look that promising as far as increasing your chip count FAST.

I think FAST is the key word here. Sure you've got twenty BB left now, but in 5-10 minutes you'll probably be down to about 8 or 9. And then, as already stated, it's move in or fold time. Is that the position you want to be in? Sitting around praying for some cards, and the IF you get them, praying that you win with them?

Let's assume you manage to double up once in that round. Then you're just back to where you started, at around 20BB. So in effect, by playing that way, your one goal is to manage to go from 20BB to 10BB and then back to 20BB. Not only that, but you probably won't even get back there more than 60% of the time. That's not all though, because in 5 minutes, the blinds are going up AGAIN and you have to do the same thing! So now you have about 60% chance to get back there again, so you can try to do it yet another time when blinds move up again. Soooo, basically, about 5% of the time, in an hour, you'll be exactly where you were an hour ago, except you'll be in the money (slightly).

Now obviously some time you'll manage to catch a streak and get a good sized chip stack, but not more than 1 fifth of that 5% of the time you get into the money. Getting to the top 3 about 1% of the time just doesn't seem like much in the way of profits.

Now obviously, my thinking is somewhat flawed by the fact that 63.7% of all my figures were made up on the spot. But I think my point is still relevant, if not completely correct.

[Aisthesis]

You're quite right on the odds given that you play the hand. Sorry.

But I really find that this impatience in increasing stack-size gets me into more trouble than it gets me out of.

Good example is a tourney I just played. Got short-stacked early on and was playing short-stack all the way into the blasted money. Ok, then I went out when I called an all-in from a stack equal to my own with me holding KK, the first really good hand I had the entire tourney (opponent had A2 and hit the A). Now, if I had won that hand, I was actually out of trouble, despite the fact that I had been fighting to keep pace with the blinds the whole way. A win would have put me in an above average stack.

Basically, once in a while you get some really good double or triple up chances that either work or they don't. In the meantime, just survive and keep pace with the blinds. It in any case happens to me all the time that some big stack is throwing his weight around while I'm sitting there in medium or short-stack. Then I look at the tourney results, and that guy finished way worse than I did.

I mean, I obviously have no objection to getting a big stack. I love to have it. But I'm just not going to go into panic mode in order to get there. It either happens or it doesn't, so I just play whatever I've got in a way that seems appropriate to the table.

And indeed T700 at the 25/50 level is not exactly encouraging, but I've come back from that bad to do quite well. The longer you can sit at the table with a stack that you can do anything at all with, the better your chances of finding a REALLY good opportunity--which my KK in that situation was, unfortunately it didn't happen. But, hey, I also played 55 hard from a short-stack and sucked out AA on a PF all-in when I hit my 5, so it goes both ways.

[Dumb Snowman]

One point I have: Average stack don't mean a thing. I think maybe it all comes down to what size of a stack you play best with. I personally can't stand anything less than 20BB as it makes me feel like I'm playing preflop poker (which I CAN'T STAND). You seem to be more of an odds kind of guy which might explain your taste for preflop poker, since you are in effect playing the odds.

Playing a big stack for me helps me get chips a lot quicker. I'm really not patient enough to play very tight, so I do a good ammount of loose-ish raising and normally manage to grow my big stack very well. Maybe you're very patient, and can wait around for hands to double up on against guys like me.

One other small point I have. Right now, in the poker world, tight players just aren't winning tournaments. Howard Lederer, one of the tightest players I can think of, hasn't won a big tourney in forever, but, has made quite a few final tables. But on the flip-side, people like Negraunu, Ivey, and Hanson are winning everything in sight. If you read tournament day-by-days much, you can see how these guys tend to get the chip lead from practically the first two hours, and maintaiin it all the way through.

I'm in no way saying that I can play as well as them, but I think we share the same style, which is really winning big right now.

[TexasKowboy]

My problem is I agree with both of you. At the time I play like Aisthesis but am trying to adjust to play more like floppy.

IMO the bad play here was UTG calling all in with only TP Q kicker. So many players play K9 that I would have been more worried that floppy was pushing with 2 pair or a set then a flush draw.

[slaz13]