2 hands (TPGK/set) - same opp - misplayed? $50FR

[MTPaid]

Opponent: Pretty much vanilla over a small amount of time. Ended up being 27/8 after about 120 hands, but this is about 30 something hands in. Only prior interaction was a preflop limp and then fold when I threw in a button PFR to $2.

Hand 1: [Js] UTG+1 (8 handed)

Villain ($40.10)
Me ($54.90)

Villain posts SB, I limp, MP2 min-raises (habitual minraiser preflop - 50/20/40 - almost all min-raises), Villain calls, BB calls, I call.

[9s][Ah] Pot $4
Villain bets $2.60, I raise to $6.50, MP2 folds, Villain re-raises to $12, I take a little bit of time and call.

Pot $28
Villain pushes $27.10, I ???????

Though process: At 1st I thought there was at least a 50% chance this was a draw with the possibility of Ax to AQ, 2 pair, or a set. Now I'm getting 2-1. I could be ahead or I could have has many as 12 outs which makes me 2.8-1, or worse case scenario I have 8 outs if he has a set.

This is an odds question, but what % of the time does he have to be on a draw combined with what % of the time does he have to have AQ or 2 pair making all 12 outs good for me to call here? Is 2-1 enough?


Hand 2: It probably helps if you knew what Villain had in hand 1 here, but I have [Ks] in the BB.

Villain ($63.10)
Me ($54.25)

Villain open-raises to $1.50 in CO, I re-raise to $4.75 from BB, Villain calls.

[8c][Kd] Pot $9.75
I bet $9.75. He calls.
Thought process: Certainly he doesn't expect me to bet pot if I flopped a set here and I may get a call from a decent Ace.

Pot $29.25
I check, he checks.
Thought process: He pushed the turn last hand. I'm hoping he will think the Ace scared me and I'm giving up. Didn't work this time.

Pot $29.25
I bet $15, he calls.
Thought process: What I really wanted was to bet little enough that there was a good chance he would see it as weakness and raise me, but enough so that if he just called I didn't feel like I let him off too cheap? Is this even possible?

[ua1176]

hand 1: this becomes a lot easier to play if you don't raise the flop. i like calling the flop, raising a non-[h] turn if he bets small, calling turn if he bets normal-sized. bet turn if checked to. try to get to showdown without getting all in.

as played i would just suck it up and fold to the small reraise on the flop.

hand 2: i think the chance of him having A-x or maybe a club draw outweighs the chance of him floating flop + bluffing turn with nothing. i would bet this turn.

as played i think i try to CR river. i expect him to value bet an ace a large percentage of the time if you check to him twice, and he may very well bluff a missed flush draw as well.

jon

[MTPaid]

[MTPaid]

I can't keep the entire forum in suspense any longer. I know you've all been sitting by your computers all afternoon waiting for this.......

Here is the conversation that followed the 1st hand:
Villain: didnt figure you'd raise the flop with an ace
Me: so your saying you didn't have an Ace beat?
Villain: no, I had AJ. figured your raise was a bluff

So basically I was freerolling, but folded. I'm not really that upset as that would be results oriented.

Does that make my play in the 2nd hand any better, knowing that he turn pushed AJ last time? He had [Js] in the 2nd hand.