short stack big table (at least for me ! )

[euri10]

following Rolf discussion about short stack, etc, and because I had a good night at holdem, I decided to take a shot on a big PLO table.
So I sit at the 3/6 table with 200$ and basically wait for monsters.
I took 2/3 small pots without any importance, without risk so my stack is about 270$ when I'm dealt on the button.
one limper, MP2 raise it to 18$, I call, SB calls, BB calls and the limper completes.
so we are 5 for a 90$ pot.
and the flop is :


it's checked around, I bet the pot, SB repot (270$), BB folds, limper folds, preflop raiser cold calls the 270$ ( he have with SB a big stack >1200$) and it's my turn.

What do I do with a non-nut str8 / a flush draw but non nut, a str8 flush draw ... ?

[Hofstra]

I assume that the on the flop is actually a and that the is actually a ....

Anyway, I don't like the hand; I can't imagine that you are a moneyfavorite here. Even if a decent player flat calls on this board you have to take the possibility into account that he has the nut straight but wants to see a safe turn card first. The preflop raiser cold calling the raise means that he either has a big wrap 8-J and waits for the turn to become aggressive, or AAxx with the nut flush draw. I'm not sure about the SB, but I bet that right now he has a better hand than you. I think your only hope is that your flush draw is good (or that you hit one of your miracle outs). So, unless I have a very strong read that SB is making a play because he thinks everyone is weak, I'd fold.

Even though the hand looks very nice on the flop, you have to figure that a) a raise will put you in a difficult position for all your chips, where you could be drawing totally dead, and that b) even if you just get one caller, there may be many turncards that can make your life difficult: any flush card leaves you guessing, and a 9 or a T might give someone a higher straight. You also don't want to see the board pair up of course.

In short, both players show considerable strength and interest in the pot. You don't have the nuts and you only have two nut outs, so fold.

I don't know which levels you normally play, but the problem for me would be that I don't know very well how the people there play and how tricky they are. I think that you can only decide to buy in short if you know pretty well what the texture of the game will be like. If you are in unfamiliar territory you are always guessing whether your opponents are testing you, trying to outplay you, or really have you beat.

What was the outcome? Where was this game by the way?

Pieter

[Rolf Slotboom]

Hi Euri,

One thing: With five players in the pot for $18, your pot bet is $90, meaning the pot raise should be $360 total, not $270 total. Either way, you've got $90 in the pot already of your initial $270 or $252 (depending whether you had the $270 at the befinning of the hand or after the flop). So, it is only $180 or $162 more to you in a massive pot, where you have to win significantly less than 25% of the time to still have a positive expectation. And this is the situation: no player *needs* to have the nuts, meaning that your second-highest straight may in fact be winning, any T may still give you a split even if you *are* up against the nuts, your flush draw is probably no good but you do have straight flush outs even if you are up against a bigger flush draw (which is not a certainty, though), you have a backdoor flush that may come in handy and in addition to all this strength you also have top two pair!

In my view, in a hand with extremely deep money, say everyone with over $1,000 or so, you *may* have had a decision to make, holding a non-nut hand in a three-way pot. But here, the only real decision you are facing (at least in my opinion) is whether you should put your chips in with your right hand or your left.

Rolf Slotboom
www.rolfslotboom.com

[euri10]

mmm this is the decision I made,
but unfortunatly I lost
the SB had 8T for the nut str8 with which was one of my nut flush outs. he had no flush draw.
the preflop raiser holds the with that hand AA67 (I don't remember which suit) that blocked again 2 of my outs !
So in fact I was drawing dead but with so much money already in the pot I had no hesitation...

With deep money I'm not sure I'm pushing here.

I have another question which is : was my bet on the flop stupid or not ?

[Rolf Slotboom]

You weren't drawing dead. Even if there was a higher flush draw out there, you still had top two pair. With one opponent having a lower two pair, this should still give you three almost pure nut outs twice. Plus, any ten may still give you a split and your backdoor flush may be good. If you make the proper calculation of your pot odds, meaning the final amount you had to call as opposed to the total pot size after this call, and you compare this with your chances of winning (do a computer simulation of this three-way match-up, and don't think you can do the caluculations all by yourself), then you will see that even in this seemingly worst-case scenario your decision to play will not have cost you much money in the long run. In fact, my estimate is that even in this WCS your hand is probably *still* worth a call, simply because you are in a neutral or slightly +EV situation, even when at first glance it would seem you are dominated on almost all fronts.

Rolf Slotboom
www.rolfslotboom.com

[Felonius_Monk]

I agree with Rolf