by Aisthesis » Mon Mar 05, 2007 3:16 pm
I like the $120, although I'm also open to the call (I'd probably raise most of the time, but they're giving you awfully good odds).
As to the continuation, I think you're in deep enough that you need to call here. True, you're in moderately bad shape against AJ or AQ. I don't think 44 is quite such a big disaster, nor A4 or KT (which he doesn't have, but is I suppose worth mentioning). You probably don't quite have the odds, but it's close, so I think I'd go ahead and make the call.
Looks to me like 12 outs or 10 with 40 cards left, and some boating outs also gone. Some of the others may also have some of your flush outs, I fear.
With the call plus mini-raise, I think EP looks very much like 44, which would give you the full 12 outs if no one else was drawing to the flush but had maybe some kind of A. You shouldn't really be any worse than 3:1 most of the time, I think, and maybe closer to 2.5:1. I think that's close enough, actually. It's also VAGUELY possible that the loose player is himself drawing to the flush and that you're ahead--probably a bit of a stretch, but maybe 10% of the time, that's what he'll have (something like KJs).