Help with sets $50 FR

[MTPaid]

9 handed CO [3c]
Me - $104.65
Button - $55.10

I started off playing loose and very aggressive, but had slowed down lately. I'd shown some junk and pushed with a pair and a flush draw early as well. Last 2 hands I'd shown down were sets.

Button - 43/10/20 over 100+ hands. He played a lot preflop, but almost always folded on the flop, usually to me.

MP1 limps, I limp, Button limps, SB calls, BB checks
[3d][5s] Pot $2.50
SB/BB/MP1 check, I bet $2.50, Button calls, SB/BB/MP1 fold
Pot $7.50
This is a pretty raggy board. I suspect a set of 5's, but a pair of Queens is likely also. If I bet again and he only has the Queen he might fold, so I checked the turn and let him bet.
He bet $7.50 which seemed pretty strong to me. I just called. I'm starting to really believe he has 55.
Pot $22.50
Check/call?
Bet out?
Check/raise?
To be honest, I'm really considering check/folding to a big bet. Am I insane?


9 handed MP1 [Th]
Me - $69.85
UTG - $48

I had been slightly loose and aggressive on this table, betting at and picking up most orphan pots in position, but hadn't had a really big hand.
UTG had NOT played a single hand yet. His numbers were 0/0/0 in 25 hands.

UTG limps, I raise to $2.50 planning on seeing UTG re-pop and then I'd dump it, SB calls, UTG calls.
[6s][Qd] Pot $8
SB/UTG check, I bet $5, SB folds, UTG calls
Pot $18
Check, check
Pot $18
UTG bets $9.
Do I raise or just call?
I doubt UTG is playing KJ here UTG. I'm wondering if he's the type to limp QQ and slowplay the set. Is he betting a missed flush draw? If so there's no reason to raise because he wouldn't call. Unless he has something like [Jd]. Could be top 2 also looking for a check-raise. I don't know. He seems like a rock, but that river bet doesn't seem to fit here.

[Devbert]

[GodlikeRoy]

[Devbert]

Roy, why would he check-call the flop then check the turn if he flopped a set on a board with a flush draw and a straight draw? That doesn't make any sense at all. He'd definitely lead the turn if he decided to check-call the flop with a set.

Much more likely that he has Q-x or 8-9.

[GodlikeRoy]

[Devbert]

[GodlikeRoy]

[MTPaid]

Hand 1: If I had 55 I was most likely going broke. I checked the river and prayed he didn't make a pot sized bet because I had a really bad feeling. He bet $12 and I called expecting to see a set of 5's, but he actually had [4s] for the turned straight. I felt like I lost the least I could have there. If I had bet the river, he would have raised and then the best I could have done was folded and lost my blocking bet which would have been about the same amount.

Hand 2: The thing is, I kind of agree with both of you here. 25 hands isn't much and I've gone that long with garbage many times, but it gives me more reason to believe he's really tight than the opposite. I couldn't figure out whether it was a missed flush draw in which case a raise is not getting called or something that beats me like QQ. Someone that tight might play QQ that way although I'm sure I would have been re-raised preflop with AA. I didn't think something like 89s/AQ/KJ was likely because he hadn't played a hand yet, but like we said, it's only 25 hands. So essentially the only hand I could have raised and gotten a call from that I beat is AK and the turn check didn't really fit either. Since I didn't have time to think of all this before I acted, I just weakly called.

I was semi-right about the missed flush draw, but Roy hit it on the head. [Kd]. I can't believe he played that so weak before the river.