Nut str8 with no re-draw

[GooperMC]

Bad LP player raises pot from EP. Over 40ish this is his first raise. I call in LP with 3445ss.

Flop is . He pots, I re-pot, and he re-re-pots, I?

We both start then hand with > double stacks, so I have roughly 1/6 of my stack in and he has roughly 1/2 his.

[DonCologne]

[pokerzen]

[Stoneburg]

[GooperMC]

[DonCologne]

[GooperMC]

[SCFanatiker]

[Ojingo]

[Pok 7's]

[Aisthesis]

[DonCologne]

If hero has no diamond in his hand and villian AAxx the probability that xx are 2 diamonds is 6,09% and if hero has one diamond the probability is 4,98%.

The only problem when a diamond comes at the turn is, that this will slow down villian and hero gets less of his stack.

Villian will not think about a wheel here, but a possible flush is for him more likley.

So I make the EV calculation. Here are the assumptions i will take:

1. Hero and villian both have not 2 diamonds in the hands and one has 1 diamond: So 10 diamonds left in the deck
2. Hero and villians stack is 200 BB
3. preflop: raise villian to 3,5 BB; call hero 3,5 BB; blinds fold
4. flop bet villian 8,5 BB; call hero 8,5 BB
5a. Turn: If no diamond comes and the board is not pairing: villian bets 25,5 BB; Hero raises max, villian all-in, call hero
5b. If a diamond comes: villian bets 15 BB; hero raises to 70,5 BB; villian folds; hero wins 25 BB
6. board pairs with not the last 4: villian bets 25,5 BB; hero folds; hero lost 12 BB
7. board pairs with the last 4: villian bets 25,5 BB; hero raises max; villian-push, call hero

This gives for the szenarios the EV:

5a. 28/43 * (35/42 * 201,5 BB - 7/42 * 200 BB) = 87,64 BB
5b. 10/43 * 25 BB = 5,81 BB
6. - 4/43 * 12 BB = - 1,12 BB
7. 1/43 * (41/42 * 201,5 BB - 1/42 * 200 BB) = 4,46 BB

And the cumulative EV = 96,79 BB

If you push preflop your pot equity is 0,757 or in cash 303,94 BB and you paid 200 BB for that, so you have an EV of 101,94 BB, so fighting the battle at the flop should be slightly better.

So what about raise and calling the reraise at the flop?

EV = 38/43 * (35/42 *201,5 BB - 7/42 * 200 BB) - 4/43 * 114 BB + 1/43 * (41/42 *201,5 BB - 1/42 *200 BB) = 112,8 BB

So in this situation it is better, to repot the flop and call the repot from villian. Than you can be very certain, that you are against the aces and you can spent your last 86 BB if the board pairs at the turn.

Best play in this situation with the highest EV ist not to raise the maximum preflop. So hero can spent the maximum amount when an ace or deuce comes with the turn card, but villian has committed too much, so it is not likley he folds here, if hero pushes the turn, even if a diamond comes.

So after villian pots the flop, reraising only 3/4 pot (20 BB) should be fine. After that villian can raise another 65,5 BB. If hero calls that bet, villian and hero has commit here 97,5 BB with 102,5 BB left.

So if the board pairs with the ace or the deuce hero can spent 102,5 BB, otherwise he can push the turn. Than villian gets pot odds 1:3, which he will calls here I think in 90% if a diamond comes and to 100% if no diamond comes with the turn card.

Because hero here only calls his repot at the flop he will not thinking about the straight.

So EV in this situation is:

EV = 28/43 * (35/42 *201,5 BB - 7/42 * 200 BB) - 4/43 * 97,5 BB + 1/43 * (41/42 *201,5 BB - 1/42 *200 BB) + 10/43 * (0,9 *(35/42 *201,5 BB - 7/42 * 200 BB) + 0,1* 98 BB) = 113,5 BB