tough spot on turn ?

[euri10]

Villain is on table since 2 orbits, no particular reads on him, seems ok, franckly no real idea on him, except that I maybe remember he was mentionned on a 2+2 thread as one of the good PLO players on UB, but maybe I'm wrong,

Hand #41821094-43 at Milford (Pot Limit Omaha)
Started at 25/Apr/07 17:06:25

Villain is at seat 1 with $354.
seat3 is at seat 3 with $316.
donator is at seat 4 with $390.
euridice is at seat 5 with $1232.40.
The button is at seat 3.

donator posts the small blind of $2.
euridice posts the big blind of $4.

Villain: -- -- -- --
seat3: -- -- -- --
donator: -- -- -- --
euridice:

Pre-flop:

Villain calls. seat3 folds. donator
calls. euridice checks.

Flop (board: ):

donator bets $12. euridice raises to $48.
Villain calls. donator folds.

Turn (board: ):

euridice bets $120. Villain goes all-in for $302.
euridice ?????

[OMGxALLiN]

MUCK

[pokerzen]

[Aisthesis]

I'm going to have to call this. I suppose he can have QQ with flush draw, but I think he can also have Q9 with flush draw or some kind of low wrap with flush draw--and will have the latter too often to lay it down. He can also have a smaller set imo.

Anyhow, I'm paying off the 2-outer if that's what he has.

[pokerzen]

Villain's not calling your set of 9s without the straight draw and probably the A-high flush draw ... possibly both. Either way ... villain's calling range eliminates QQ as a flop-calling hand. If he is calling that flop with QQ he's retarded.

[euri10]

with an opponent deeper than that, does it change your analysis ?

[pokerzen]

QQ57s offers a lot of outs to villain and is a possibility since he limped in. I'd think long and hard if villain was deep-stacked ... cursing not having any stats or reads on him yet. In that case I might fold and wait for another opportunity if villain was doublestacked or better ... then it might be harder to picture him wanting to get so involved in the hand. Then again ... original analysis still holds true at least 1/2 the time here ... could be a call anyway to see the river and villain's play at that point.

[euri10]

well, given I had 180 more to put in a 500+ pot I thought it was a good gamble...
surprise, I sucked out my 1 outer....
I don't think I could have played it differently though.

euridice calls.

River (board: ):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

nellie_fox shows .
nellie_fox has Qs Qh 9h Qc 9s: full house, queens full of nines.
euridice shows 9c Js 9d 5h.
euridice has 9c 9d 9h Qc 9s: four nines.


Hand #41821094-43 Summary:

$2 is raked from a pot of $724.
euridice wins $722 with four nines.

[pokerzen]

I give villains too much credit sometimes. Woulda been priceless to see the look on his face when the pot went to you. *lol* Suckout on this suckout guy.

[euri10]

yeah he was pissed off, and suddenly the whole table hated me and made remarks....
that was funny

[Ojingo]

[Aisthesis]

Yeah, at the $200, I had a very tight player push against me recently with QQ overpair and Q-high flush draw. So, I do think you have to watch out for it. But, with the given stack-depths, I don't see how you can play any differently.