Evaluating a hand based purely on the action.

[Bazkar]

[Dumb Snowman]

[louc]

OK, I'll give it a go.

Preflop:
I'd expect MP to have AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ. Maybe even JJ or TT. Due to relatively small size of the pot it's not likely MP attempted a steal here.
SB may well have noticed that his call gives BB and both limpers better than 3 - 1 pot odds. Let's assume BB folds. If first limper decides to call then the second limper gets almost irresistible 4 - 1 pot odds. So suited connectors are one of his possible holdings but I'd say not the likely one. Maybe he (and MP) knows that limpers will fold to any high enough bet and because he is acting out of position after the flop I'd put him on a similar range of hands as MP.

Main reason I put both of them on a premium hand is because it's early in a tournament and early in a tournament I want others to think I'm a tight player (if there is a showdown I want to show just premium hands).

Flop:
[6c][Qd]

It is possible that SB's check-raise was a bluff. He might have spotted some weakness in MP's continuation sized bet. But if he is not bluffing then I can't really narrow his hand range.
I'd say MP couldn't have aces or queens here. He might have kings (and is afraid of aces), [Kd] or AQ. He might even call with jacks or tens, but it's not likely.

Given the preflop action I wouldn't be scared of a flush draw here (although it's possible - I'd play like it's not).

Turn:


With this bet SB has committed more then half of his stack in the pot. If his check-raise on the flop was a bluff this might well have been a bluff too. He might (possible but not likely) have pocket eights. Again I really can't narrow his hand range here.
What about MP? probably didn't help either. He is getting 2.5 - 1 pot odds. If he holds [Kd] he is not getting good enough odds to warrant this call. I'd probably let it go and I'd also fold AQ here. If he has kings only aces and queens beat him (that's 9 different holdings) I'd say that's a call.

River:


I think the bet by SB is strong. It appeared to me as he is acting weak just to made MP push all-in.
MP is geting 5.7 - 1 pot odds so it's almost a must call.

I'd say SB wins with AQ and MP mucks his KK, but I might get it completely wrong.

[Bazkar]

Excellent evaluation louc. I appreciate the time and effort you took. I'm not saying you're right just yet.

Never a consideration to pocket 6's for the SB? Flopping the set. Would you not call a single raiser from either blind position with any pocket pair with little to no chance of there being a re-raise?

I'll wait a bit to see if your evaluation sparks any additional discussion before revealing some of the details and responding further to your evaluation. Very well thought out and put down.

Thanks!

Anyone else?

Baz

[Zmej]

[louc]

[Bazkar]

[Bazkar]

[Stoneburg]

Preflop

I think MP's range should be something like a decent pair or two big cards. AA-TT and AK, AQ or KQ.

SB should have any pair below QQ, or at least AJs or AQ.

SB's check/raise on the flop could mean a set, top pair or flush draw. Or just a bluff considering the history.

MP's call must mean he has something but he seems worried about being beaten. I think that makes AA and KK less likely, AQ, KQ and JJ more likely.

SB's bet on the turn doesn't change anything, he's expected to bet there no matter what he holds. MP's call should eliminate JJ, leaving us with AQ and KQ as most likely. KQ more likely because of post flop action, but AQ more likely because of preflop.

I think SB's bet on the end is a strong means weak thing. If he wanted value he would just make a "normal" bet not to draw attention to himself. He could in fact be separating the stacks to leave himself with a small chance to recover if he loses but trying toi make it look strong. Or of course he could be leveling this... HOWEVER. He really can't expect his opponent to fold to this bet, which means he either wants some value or he messed up.

HOWEVER, the A on the river indeed does reduce the likelyhood of a flush draw, unless SB made a really bad call preflop with a SC (bad because he is in horrible position), and the flush draw distribution makes up a wide part of the range that MP's probable Top Pair hand can beat, leaving only bluffs since there's no way SB is betting a hand for value here than can't beat TP.

I think MP should call because he definetely has odds, the chance of SB making a stupid bluff here is definetely bigger than needed by pot odds. I do however think that IF he has AQ or KQ he should have found a place to push or fold earlier in the hand. I'd say either fold to the flop check/raise or push the turn.

MP: AQ, KQ
SB: 66, or T9s.