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Pushing the draws - how good is your 'gut'? - Live Poker Forums

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Pushing the draws - how good is your 'gut'?

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How often must the villain fold to a push for it to be +EV?

It doesn't matter - pushing is always +EV ie 0%
0
No votes
10% folding will be enough
4
21%
33% folding is needed
15
79%
75% or higher
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 19

Pushing the draws - how good is your 'gut'?

Postby excession » Wed Jun 13, 2007 10:24 am

OK simple scenario

You are shortish stacked - say 60BB
Villains cover you.

You are in BB with J9o

EP min raises, this is called by Button, and SB, you put 1 BB in to complete. (Pot is 8BB)

Flop is T82 rainbow giving you OESD.

You bet the pot (8BB)

EP raises you to 20BB.

Button and SB fold.

You have put 10BB in. You have 50BB left.

Without running the figures what sort of fold equity does your gut tell you a push has to have to make it +EV over a fold?

And against a vanilla opponent whatwould you do (again assuming no time to run figures)
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Postby GodlikeRoy » Wed Jun 13, 2007 10:29 am

my gut tells me call > push/fold. my gut also tells me that I wouldn't bet this flop, i think, but i'm not sure as i don't have much experience playing as a 60 BB stack.
Poker is silly.

It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.

Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.

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Postby black_knight6 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 11:58 am

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Postby shamdonk » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:09 pm

Be glad your opponents refuse to fold; if they didn't, you just might go broke.


(9:00:09 PM) GodlikeRoy: i think you could prolly post total shit for the next 2 years aaaaand like 192 days and you'll still be considered 'posting good' cause of your threads that'll never be seen thread
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Postby black_knight6 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:10 pm

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Postby k3nt » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:13 pm

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Postby Beavis68 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:39 pm

you are around 2:1 to hit your hand, you will be getting around 1.5:1 on your money when he calls. without actually running the number I think it is 33% is enough.


BTW, I did the math and I get you need about 21% FE to be break even (using 33% equity if called which I didnt validate).
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Postby Rhound50 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 4:57 pm

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

"From playing full tilt I wanna smash every garden gnome I see. That travelocity commercial puts me on instant tilt."
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Postby excession » Wed Jun 13, 2007 6:17 pm

Last edited by excession on Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Triple B » Wed Jun 13, 2007 7:12 pm

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Postby Beavis68 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 9:50 pm

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Postby excession » Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:36 am

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Postby Stoneburg » Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:47 am

Image
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Postby excession » Thu Jun 14, 2007 6:11 am

Actually Beavis is right - the maths are a little off as I was treating the loss if you pushed and got called and missed as -50BB.

It would be an additional 50BB but you already have 10BB in so the overall loss for the hand would be 60BB (as opposed to 10BB if you fold).

This makes the tipping point where push is better than fold at 20% fold equity and the absolute profit point (where the push is +EV ratehr than just being not as bad as the 10BB lost when you fold) at 43% Fold Equity.

I'll post the spreadsheet wehn I get home and will have a play with factoring calls into it.
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Postby Triple B » Thu Jun 14, 2007 9:54 am

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