[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4783: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4785: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4786: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4787: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
Pushing the draws - how good is your 'gut'? - Live Poker Forums

Advanced search

Pushing the draws - how good is your 'gut'?

Hand analysis. Post your trouble hands here

Moderators: iceman5, LPF Police Department

How often must the villain fold to a push for it to be +EV?

It doesn't matter - pushing is always +EV ie 0%
0
No votes
10% folding will be enough
4
21%
33% folding is needed
15
79%
75% or higher
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 19

Postby Beavis68 » Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:31 am

User avatar
Beavis68
 
Posts: 3568
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:43 pm
Location: double secret probation

Postby excession » Thu Jun 14, 2007 11:12 am

I appreciate you can never really know for sure how many outs you have - to take the downside if he has a set your outs are no good if the board pairs etc.

I guess you just fudge a little and if you think he might call with a hand you have more outs against more often than one you have less against fudge the number upwards a little.

I have had another go at the spreadsheet. I just need to upload it properly when I get home but for now you can grab it at
http://www.uploadwiz.com/WIZ4581961874


I've tidied it up and you now have to input the following 7 variables:

Easy ones
Effective Stack Size (smallest of you and villian)
Dead Money (in pot not from you or villain)
Loss if fold (the amount of money you have in the pot already)
The Big Blind in $ (needed for checking capped rake assuming $3 cap)
Amount to call villain's raise (if applicable)

And the trickier ones
Estimated outs (adjusted as above if needed)
Estimate of the % of the villains stack you will get if you call and hit turn

The only flaw I can see at the moment is that sometimes the villain won't push you off if you call and miss and you will hit on river. I have no idea how to factor that in other than to note that this means the EV for calls is a little low.

It should be able to analyse HU type situations on the flop - particularly draws.

I hope playing with it is going to be interesting and informative and that someone far better than me at maths (like Beavis) vets the functions to verify its ok.
User avatar
excession
Enthusiast (Online)
 
Posts: 3872
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 3:52 pm
Location: manchester uk

Postby Beavis68 » Thu Jun 14, 2007 1:07 pm

User avatar
Beavis68
 
Posts: 3568
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:43 pm
Location: double secret probation

Postby Stoneburg » Thu Jun 14, 2007 1:10 pm

Image
User avatar
Stoneburg
 
Posts: 5931
Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 9:03 pm
Location: Sweden

Postby excession » Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:31 pm

User avatar
excession
Enthusiast (Online)
 
Posts: 3872
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 3:52 pm
Location: manchester uk

Postby Beavis68 » Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:38 pm

User avatar
Beavis68
 
Posts: 3568
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:43 pm
Location: double secret probation

Postby excession » Thu Jun 14, 2007 3:51 pm

it's not 17% it's 25% - you'll never get that high so the push is worst - looks on these figures that the call is marginally wosre than the fold..but if you can justify that he will never slow down if you hit then the call will be better

here is the original problem with figures plugged in to balance out the EV's - assuming 25% fold equity (which I think is too high for the actual case - I figure 10% max to be honest) and you getting on average 85% of your stack in against villain if you call and hit...

Image

the spreadsheet itself can be downloaded here
http://www.andymcnish.net/book2.xls
User avatar
excession
Enthusiast (Online)
 
Posts: 3872
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 3:52 pm
Location: manchester uk

Postby Beavis68 » Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:41 pm

User avatar
Beavis68
 
Posts: 3568
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:43 pm
Location: double secret probation

Previous

Return to No Limit Hold'em Cash Games

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests