Deep with Big Slick/Santa Barbara/Walking Back to Houston

[DoctorHandles]

Effective stacks $200. BUTTON IS A NIT (15/11) preflop, but seems not weak postflop. I have about 500 hands with him and I'm sure he knows I know what I'm doing, but has no idea what (or if I even do) double barrel with or anything specific like that.

On to the hand......

1. I raise [Kd] to $4 from mp, button calls and blinds fold.

2. Flop [Qs][2h], pot is $9, I bet $7 and button calls.

3. Turn , pot is $23, I bet $20 and button calls.

4. River is , pot is $62. What is my line here?

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A) Suppose I check and he bets $55, is this a call?

B) Suppose I bet $31 and he insta-raises me to $105, is this a call?

[Semillon]

C) Consider check/fold?

I am left wondering what you can beat on the river here? What do you consider his range to be?

I guess without knowing more, I would totally rule out B)

[GodlikeRoy]

[Stoneburg]

Check/fold. He has to have something to call two barrels with. Which means he eitther hit the flop with KQ, QQ or 22 or he just rivered you. The only hands you beat (AA, AQ, JJ) will happily check behind and are unlikely anyway.

Flush draw seems unlikely since the and is out. My guess would actually be QQ or 22 and he was waiting until the turn to raise, but figured he just drew ahead so much he could afford to just call and induce a bet or call on the river. With his stats I would say his cold calling range is pretty narrow, pairs and AK pretty much.

Check/fold > bet/fold > check/call > bet/call

[droqqa]

[GodlikeRoy]

[poker2006]

[Triple B]

[doublepro]

[ua1176]

i would just check/fold. what are you going to get value out of? you chop w/ AK, lose to KQ...no way a 15/11 is in there till the river w/ any other K-x or w/ AQ.

bet/fold and check/call both have their merits....but not really. a 15/11 won't pay off here w/ worse and he's rarely gonna bluff you if you check to him.

a CRAI bluff would be pretty sick......especially because in a vacuum i think he has JT more than he has spades (players are more likely to raise FD's than OESD's). probably not gonna be +EV though.