200PLO8 - worst call ever ;-) ?

[Felonius_Monk]

Sorry, couldn't be bothered finding the HH convertor...

Opponent seemed a bit loose, but nothing special so far. Don't think I've seen him before.

PokerStars Game #10603337728: Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit ($1/$2) - 2007/06/24 - 20:01:44 (ET)
Table 'Sadachbia' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: SCOUSE ($125.35 in chips)
Seat 2: Jayrule ($200 in chips)
Seat 4: svw6ae ($218.25 in chips)
Seat 5: outlaw ($201.80 in chips)
Seat 7: FelonusMonk ($193 in chips)
Seat 8: Vilcas ($260.45 in chips)
Seat 9: Placidus ($377.50 in chips)
outlaw: posts small blind $1
FelonusMonk: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FelonusMonk [3h Ah Qd Tc]
Vilcas: raises $6 to $8
Placidus: folds
SCOUSE: folds
Jayrule: folds
svw6ae: calls $8
outlaw: folds
FelonusMonk: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [2c 4s Kc]
FelonusMonk: checks
Vilcas: checks
svw6ae: checks
*** TURN *** [2c 4s Kc]
FelonusMonk: bets $20
Vilcas: raises $232.45 to $252.45 and is all-in
svw6ae: folds
FelonusMonk: calls $165 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [2c 4s Kc Th]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FelonusMonk: shows [3h Ah Qd Tc] (HI: two pair, Tens and Deuces)
Vilcas: shows [Ad Ac Td 9d] (HI: two pair, Aces and Deuces)
Vilcas collected $392 from pot
No low hand qualified
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $395 | Rake $3
Board [2c 4s Kc Th 2d]
Seat 1: SCOUSE folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Jayrule folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: svw6ae (button) folded on the Turn
Seat 5: outlaw (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: FelonusMonk (big blind) showed [3h Ah Qd Tc] and lost with HI: two pair, Tens and Deuces
Seat 8: Vilcas showed [Ad Ac Td 9d] and won ($392) with HI: two pair, Aces and Deuces
Seat 9: Placidus folded before Flop (didn't bet)


Turn raise really confused me, but there was something niggling in my head saying that it really didn't add up. I had the feeling maybe he had a two-way draw, and so perhaps my pair of tens was winning. Two pair was possible but unlikely, AA seemed a distinct possibility (played in an ugly way), perhaps with a low but I'm still in good shape against that. I still think this was a crappy call but (in actuality) it was a good one in value terms. I was the slimmest of favourites on the turn!

I need 42% to call this. Various possibilities:

Actual situation: I have 51%
vs nut low plus nut flush draw: 60-70%
vs top two with weaker low: 32%
vs AA3: 40%
vs top set with weaker low: 33%

I suppose my overall EV depends on how likely these are; I really felt like various AA hands and/or various draw-orientated stuff was most likely so it seemed at the time like one of those moments of unusual clarity to make the call

So maybe it's not a bad call after all. Instinctively, though, I don't know if I like it.

[Kuso]

[Kuso]

[Felonius_Monk]

[DaFish]