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Im not used to playing this deep

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Postby Aisthesis » Thu Jun 28, 2007 8:48 pm

I'm really tempted to raise this to 750 or so.

The real question is simply what he has: 33 is definitely in there and very good for you. But I'm just wondering what other unsuited hands are in his limp-call PF range. AQ/AJ with naked As? How likely is it that he has something like AQs or AJs with made nut flush? Is he ever laying down a hand like 54s in spades here? On that one, thinking about it, it's going to be hard to believe that all 3 players have spades.

Anyhow, if he's drawing to naked As, it's at least significantly less likely he's going to hit, since I see the Swede as almost definitely having a flush here.

I think I'm more for raising than calling in light of the stacks. I think maintaining initiative and forcing villain to make a tough decision is generally a good idea if the opportunity arises.

Anyhow, if you make it 750 and he pushes, as he definitely will (or should) with made nut flush, you then have to call given your odds. But I think you might have some fold equity against smaller flushes and might have some call equity against 33. Also, if he has 33, it's getting much less likely for the board to pair, and if he doesn't it should be more likely.
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Postby Aisthesis » Thu Jun 28, 2007 8:51 pm

Also, his cold call imo doesn't have to be super-strong. All you've really done is made your CB, so you can in principle be quite weak at this point.
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Postby Aisthesis » Thu Jun 28, 2007 8:58 pm

The more I think about this, the more my conclusion is: If you don't like raising here, you need to leave because you're not in the frame of mind to play deep. And, by the way, I leave a LOT after some big scores for that very reason. I think leaving is really the best play unless you're willing to use your stack to put the pressure on others.
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Postby Zeestein » Fri Jun 29, 2007 7:13 am

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Postby Aisthesis » Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:45 am

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Postby Rhound50 » Fri Jun 29, 2007 5:12 pm

I really think calling is the best option here but as I did it I would take my time and physically count out my chips like i was gonna raise then call. This show of strength is going to give you a huge tell on the turn. If the board doesn't pair and he leads he is going to have a big flush most of the time. I think a raise is a bad play, he is going to have a really tough time calling without a hand that has you beat. After the CR all in, a smooth call and you make the 3rd raise with a player in the middle smooth calling with a dry side pot a good player is going to fold 33 to a reraise almost every time, the only hand that he can call with beats you. The all in player is likely to have the [As] so if the spade turns likely you are going to lose the pot anyways. You have position, if he checks to you bet any non spade turn and hope he has 33.
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Postby DonkiFornication » Fri Jun 29, 2007 5:38 pm

[Ts][Tc]
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